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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 5 Nov 2026 (Day 250)

Published 5 Nov 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 5 November 2026? No. On Day 250 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 3 ships transited on 3 Nov 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 3 Nov 2026? 3 vessel transits were logged on 3 Nov 2026 (1 inbound, 2 outbound), about 3% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $96.15 on 5 November 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 250 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 3 transits logged on 3 Nov (the most recent complete day reported) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 3 transits on 03 NOV (data as of 03 NOV, the most recent complete day reported; 2 days old, no 04 NOV count published yet) — 1 inbound and 2 outbound (2 AIS-visible, 1 dark), about 3% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Corridor split: north 2 (1 inbound, 1 outbound), south 1 (outbound). Down from 7 on 02 NOV. Day 250 of the closure.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Kpler put Hormuz crude exports at about 7.3M bpd in the week ended 28 OCT (8 days old, not refreshed), more than half below the pre-war level of about 16M bpd. No fresh Vortexa or Kpler total was available for 03 NOV. Vortexa put Kuwait loadings at about 260,000 bpd for 01 AUG–31 OCT, roughly a third of January’s rate (Windward, as of 03 NOV).
  • Count Dispute: Windward’s 03 NOV panels list 3 transits (1 in, 2 out), 1 of them dark (an outbound cargo vessel). The AIS-visible vessels were the bulk carrier DIAMANTI inbound and the oil/chemicals tanker SEAWAY outbound. IMF PortWatch (AIS-only, via straits.live) last showed 2 commercial transits on 25 OCT (11 days old), and straits.live’s 04 NOV brief could not be retrieved for a cross-check. Windward is the count used here; AIS-only trackers understate dark traffic.
  • Fleet Activity: Newest reports: UKMTO logged a tanker hit by two projectiles off northeast Oman on 03 NOV with no injuries, and the Indian-crewed dhow MSV Al Jusufi was hit in the Strait on 03 NOV with one crew member killed (CBS News live updates, 03 NOV). On 05 NOV the IRGC claimed two tankers and a tugboat caught fire after using unauthorized routes through the Strait (IRGC via Tasnim, Times of Israel and Arab News; unverified, some reports cite mines). Confirmed earlier: a Marshall Islands LNG tanker took projectiles about 40 nm south of Lavan Island on 30 OCT and turned back; a Panama-flag crude tanker caught fire off Musandam the same day and Oman evacuated 25 crew; on 29 OCT explosive devices were attached to a tanker NE of Khasab (Windward).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (07 OCT; 29 days old, not refreshed). Its 05 NOV report lists about 60 vessels holding offshore, many off Dubai (count undated), against about 50 in its 04 NOV report. A 03 NOV briefing note citing CENTCOM puts commercial vessels redirected since the US blockade resumed in July at 144.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Qatari and Pakistani mediators are working on a narrower interim deal in which Iran halts attacks on Hormuz shipping and the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, with responses expected within about 36 hours of 04 NOV (Reuters, 04 NOV, via House of Saud; secondary). It is unclear whether either side has accepted. Iran’s foreign ministry said on 03 NOV that its plan could be implemented within two days if the US lifts the blockade and ends hostilities (Al Jazeera, 03 NOV). No agreed framework has been announced.
  • Talks: Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei dismissed the US reply as unconvincing on 03 NOV and said Hormuz reopens only if Iran’s seven conditions are met; foreign ministry spokesman Baqaei said Iran is not afraid of diplomacy (CBS News live updates, 03 NOV). Araghchi said on 02 NOV there are no direct US-Iran talks and intermediaries are still working, and Oman’s foreign minister spoke with him on 05 NOV, substance undisclosed (Anadolu, via House of Saud). Qatar said on 03 NOV it is working toward an interim deal.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC fired on a US aircraft on 02 NOV and US forces answered with limited defensive strikes, reportedly on Qeshm Island (WSJ via CBS News, 02 NOV). Iran’s deputy foreign minister Gharibabadi said on 03 NOV that Iran retains the right to self-defense, and the IRGC said it will decide the time and conditions for ending what it called the enemy’s attacks (CBS News live updates, 03 NOV). The US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.
  • Wildcard: US Strike Window: Trump said on 02 NOV that a deal with Tehran could happen and that Iran wants a settlement as soon as possible (Truth Social via AFP, CBS News live updates), and told Axios the same day that the US will do something one way or the other but there is no rush (via House of Saud, secondary). Democrats won both chambers in the 03 NOV midterms, so the pre-election pledge not to resume strikes has lapsed; Gulf News reported on 05 NOV that Trump is weighing strikes or a deal after the loss. Rezaei and the IRGC statements above show no softening on Iran’s side.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date. Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; 24 days old, not refreshed). Iran says it can reopen the Strait within two days once the US lifts its blockade (03 NOV), but no side has confirmed a start date. The mediators’ roughly 36-hour response window from 04 NOV runs out around 05–06 NOV.
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded near $96.15 at 10:58 UTC on 05 NOV, down 5.91% over 24 hours (straits.live), against $102.19 on 04 NOV; Gulf News put it near $93 on 04–05 NOV (secondary, different timestamp). AAA US gas: $4.12 on 04 NOV (latest posted), down 12¢ from $4.25 a week earlier and $4.37 a month earlier.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Saudi Aramco’s CEO said East-West pipeline capacity rose from 2M to 7M bpd (CBS News, 22 OCT; 14 days old). straits.live’s latest figures show Petroline to Yanbu at 83% of its 7.0M bpd capacity (06 OCT; 30 days old) and ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd (Argus, 15 MAY). The Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda, owned by Nakilat, was struck by unidentified objects in the Gulf on 30 OCT with no injuries (Al Jazeera, 01 NOV); no Qatar LNG force majeure declaration was confirmed in the sources checked.

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How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.