Strait of Hormuz and Gas Prices: What the Closure Costs You at the Pump
Updated 9 Oct 2026 · Day 223 of the closure
The US national average is $4.370 a gallon for regular (AAA, 4 Oct 2026), down from $4.48 a week earlier and up from $4.10 a month earlier (AAA, 1 Oct). The Strait of Hormuz closure is the main reason. Brent crude sits near $102 a barrel, about $30 above its pre-crisis level of roughly $72, and that gap alone is worth about 70-75 cents a gallon.
Gas prices (AAA, 1 Oct 2026)
| Measure | Price |
|---|---|
| US national average, regular | $4.414 |
| One week ago | $4.48 |
| One month ago | $4.10 |
| Most expensive: California | $6.40 |
| Hawaii | $5.62 |
| Washington | $5.49 |
| Cheapest: Indiana | $3.81 |
| Texas | $3.94 |
| Mississippi | $3.96 |
Source: AAA gas prices. For today’s strait status, see the live Strait of Hormuz tracker.
How Hormuz moves the price of a gallon
- Supply at risk. In peacetime the strait carries about 20 million barrels a day, roughly a fifth of global oil consumption, plus about a fifth of the world’s LNG.
- Crude reprices. Traders price the risk into Brent and WTI within hours of each attack or diplomatic headline.
- Pump prices follow. A barrel holds 42 gallons, so each $1/bbl move in crude works out to about 2.4¢/gal at the pump, usually with a lag of one to three weeks.
- Diesel and jet fuel hit harder. Gulf refineries export large volumes of middle distillates, so trucking, freight and airfares feel the squeeze too.
Why prices aren’t at record highs
The closure is leaky, not sealed. Visible ship transits are down about 80%, but Kpler estimated crude through the strait at about 9.36 million barrels a day in September, around 60% of pre-crisis volume, as tankers cross with transponders off and hand cargo off ship-to-ship in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia has also resumed Red Sea exports from Yanbu after drone strikes shut the East-West pipeline on 11 September. Brent has eased from a wartime peak of about $119-120 to around $102 (5 Oct).
What would move gas prices next
- Down: a signed US-Iran reopening deal, a week without attacks, or insurers restoring cover. See when the strait might reopen.
- Up: new strikes on tankers, another hit on bypass pipelines, or a full stop to the dark-fleet shuttle.
FAQ
How does the Strait of Hormuz affect gas prices?
About a fifth of the world’s oil normally moves through the strait. When traffic is disrupted, crude prices rise, and roughly every $1 increase in a barrel of crude adds about 2.4 cents to a gallon of gasoline, because a barrel holds 42 gallons.
What is the national average gas price right now?
AAA put the US national average for regular gasoline at $4.370 a gallon on 4 October 2026, down from $4.41 on 1 October and up from about $4.10 a month earlier.
Why aren’t gas prices even higher if Hormuz is closed?
Oil is still leaking through. Tankers are crossing with AIS switched off and moving cargo by ship-to-ship transfer, putting crude flow near 60% of pre-crisis levels in September, while strategic reserves and spare capacity elsewhere cushion the shortfall.
Will gas prices go down if the Strait of Hormuz reopens?
A credible reopening deal would likely push crude down quickly, and pump prices would follow with a lag of a few weeks. Brent is still around $30 a barrel above its pre-crisis level of roughly $72, which works out to about 70-75 cents a gallon.