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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 4 Nov 2026 (Day 249)

Published 4 Nov 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 4 November 2026? No. On Day 249 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 7 ships transited on 2 Nov 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 2 Nov 2026? 7 vessel transits were logged on 2 Nov 2026 (5 inbound, 2 outbound), about 8% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $102.19 on 4 November 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 249 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 7 transits logged on 2 Nov 2026 against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 7 transits on 02 NOV (data as of 02 NOV, the most recent complete day reported; 2 days old, no 03 NOV count published yet) — 5 inbound and 2 outbound (6 AIS-visible, 1 dark), about 8% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Corridor split: inbound 3 north, 2 south; outbound 1 north, 1 south. Down from 8 on 01 NOV. Day 249 of the closure.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Kpler put Hormuz crude exports at about 7.3M bpd in the week ended 28 OCT (7 days old, not refreshed), more than 40% below the pre-war level of about 16M bpd. No fresh Vortexa or Kpler volume figure was available for 02 NOV. Windward counted 17 likely-empty crude tankers off Fujairah, 8 of them VLCCs (Windward, as of 02 NOV).
  • Count Dispute: Windward’s 02 NOV panels list 7 transits (5 in, 2 out), 1 of them dark (a floor): a roughly 333 m crude tanker crossed inbound with its transponder off. Windward flagged 7 dark transits 30 OCT–01 NOV (6 inbound, 1 outbound). IMF PortWatch (AIS-only, via straits.live) last showed 2 commercial transits on 25 OCT, and straits.live flags its transit feed as 40 hours stale on 04 NOV. Windward is the count used here; AIS-only trackers understate dark traffic.
  • Fleet Activity: Newest reports: straits.live logged a cargo ship hit in the Strait on 03 NOV with one person killed, and Iran’s IRGC Navy claimed on 03–04 NOV that oil tankers were destroyed (unverified; IRGC via Iranian media). Confirmed earlier: UKMTO reported a vessel struck 9 nm off Limah, Oman on 01 NOV. A Marshall Islands LNG tanker took three projectiles about 40 nm south of Lavan Island on 30 OCT and turned back toward Qatar; a Panama-flag crude tanker caught fire off Musandam the same day and Oman evacuated 25 crew (Windward). On 29 OCT a small boat attached two explosive devices to a tanker’s hull 25 nm NE of Khasab.
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (07 OCT; 28 days old, not refreshed). Its 04 NOV report shows about 50 vessels holding offshore, many off Dubai, down from about 110 in its 03 NOV report. A 03 NOV briefing note citing CENTCOM puts commercial vessels redirected since the US blockade resumed in July at 144.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Iran’s foreign ministry said on 03 NOV that its plan to reopen the Strait could be implemented within two days if the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ends hostilities (Al Jazeera, 03 NOV). AP reported mediators are pushing a framework in which Iran halts Hormuz attacks in return for the US lifting the blockade (AP, 03 NOV). No agreed framework has been announced.
  • Talks: Qatar circulated a draft of three days of confidence-building measures ahead of direct talks (Axios, via a 03 NOV briefing note), and both sides were reviewing proposals on 03 NOV. AP said more talks were planned this week. Iran’s chief negotiator Qalibaf said on 03 NOV that Tehran gave a firm and rational response and the ball is in America’s court (Iranian state TV). Vance said on 02 NOV that he and Trump feel good about the prospects for a negotiated settlement (Al Jazeera).
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC fired on a US aircraft on 02 NOV and US forces answered with limited strikes on air-defense sites on Qeshm Island, which US officials called defensive and did not announce (AP and WSJ via Al Jazeera, 03 NOV). Iranian media also reported explosions at Hengam Island and near Bandar Abbas and Bandar Lengeh. The IRGC claims it captured two US drones south of Qeshm and downed an MQ-9 (03 NOV, unverified), and Qalibaf says Iran’s armed forces are at their highest defensive readiness.
  • Wildcard: US Strike Window: Trump posted on Truth Social on 02 NOV that oil prices were dropping fast and that a deal with Iran could happen, and when asked said no to striking Iran after the midterms (Al Jazeera, 03 NOV). He had pledged no strikes before the 03 NOV midterms (AP); that date has now passed. A further carrier and more troops are heading to the region and the US naval blockade continues; AP reports Netanyahu is pressing for another wave of strikes after the vote.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date. Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; 23 days old, not refreshed). Iran says it can reopen the Strait within two days once the US lifts its blockade (03 NOV), but no side has confirmed a start date. More mediated talks are expected this week (AP, 03 NOV).
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded near $102.19 at 10:54 UTC on 04 NOV, down 3.54% over 24 hours (straits.live), against $106.61 at 07:44 GMT on 03 NOV (Al Jazeera). AAA US gas: $4.15 on 03 NOV, down 12¢ from $4.27 a week earlier and $4.38 a month earlier.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Saudi Aramco’s CEO said East-West pipeline capacity rose from 2M to 7M bpd (CBS News, 22 OCT; 13 days old). straits.live’s latest figures show Petroline to Yanbu at 83% of its 7.0M bpd capacity (06 OCT; 29 days old) and ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd (Argus, 15 MAY). A Qatari LNG carrier, the Al Mayeda, was struck en route to Pakistan (03 NOV briefing note); no Qatar LNG force majeure declaration was confirmed in the sources checked.

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How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.