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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 3 Nov 2026 (Day 248)

Published 3 Nov 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 3 November 2026? No. On Day 248 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 8 ships transited on 1 Nov 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 1 Nov 2026? 8 vessel transits were logged on 1 Nov 2026 (4 inbound, 4 outbound), about 9% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $105.94 on 3 November 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 248 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 8 transits logged on 1 Nov 2026 (the most recent complete day reported) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 8 transits on 01 NOV (data as of 01 NOV, the most recent complete day reported; 2 days old, no 02 NOV count published yet) — 4 inbound and 4 outbound (5 AIS-visible, 3 dark), about 9% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Corridor split: inbound all 4 via the south lane; outbound 1 north, 1 south, 2 unknown. Day 248 of the closure.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Kpler put Hormuz crude exports at about 7.3M bpd in the week ended 28 OCT, more than 40% below the pre-war level of about 16M bpd (Kpler, via Discovery Alert citing CNBC, 31 OCT; 6 days old, not refreshed). October averaged about 11.1M bpd. No Vortexa figure is published on Windward’s page.
  • Count Dispute: Windward’s 01 NOV panels list 8 transits (4 in, 4 out), 3 of them dark (a floor); 7 dark transits were confirmed 30 OCT–01 NOV (6 inbound, 1 outbound), five after multi-day AIS gaps. About 24 AIS-visible transits fell 30 OCT to the morning of 01 NOV, against 18 for 28–30 OCT. IMF PortWatch (AIS-only, via straits.live) still lists just 2 commercial transits on 25 OCT (9 days old).
  • Fleet Activity: UKMTO reported a vessel struck by a projectile about 9 nm off Limah, Oman on 01 NOV. A Marshall Islands LNG tanker took three projectiles about 40 nm south of Lavan Island on 30 OCT and turned back toward Qatar; a Panama-flag crude tanker burned off Musandam the same day and Oman evacuated 25 crew (Windward). New Delhi said on 03 NOV that the Indian-flagged MSV Al Jusufi was hit off Oman, killing one crew member (CBS News, 03 NOV). Windward flags limpet-mine use on 29–30 OCT, the first in the Gulf since 2019.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (7 OCT; 27 days old, not refreshed). Its 03 NOV report shows about 110 vessels holding offshore, many off Dubai, and 157 of 236 tankers screened AIS-dark (a floor). UKMTO counted a record 30 attacks on commercial vessels in October (CBS News, 03 NOV).
  • New Framework: Iran said on 02 NOV it can reopen the Strait within two days if the US ends the war on all fronts, lifts its naval blockade and oil sanctions, and releases frozen assets (AFP, 02 NOV). No agreed framework has been announced; Windward’s count of Iranian ports blockaded by the US, 200 days on 31 OCT, was the last blockade reading.
  • Talks: Qatar-led indirect talks, with Pakistan also mediating, ended three days with no apparent breakthrough (CBS News, 03 NOV). Iran’s foreign ministry said on 02 NOV the ball is in the US court, and Araghchi says Tehran is not in direct talks with Washington. AP reports more talks planned this week.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC fired on a US aircraft on 02 NOV and US forces answered with limited defensive strikes on Qeshm Island (CBS News citing US officials, 02 NOV). Iran’s navy claimed on 02 NOV a tanker hit a mine near the eastern entrance to Hormuz (Fars via CBS; unverified). Tehran still demands ships obtain its authorisation to transit.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Wildcard: US Strike Window: Trump posted on Truth Social on 02 NOV that a deal could happen and that Iran wants a settlement as soon as possible, while saying the US had not been fighting for months (CBS News, 02 NOV). The 03 NOV US midterms are today, ending the pre-election restraint he had signalled; Trump has said anything is possible on strikes afterwards (Fox News, 28 OCT).
  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; 22 days old, not refreshed). The 03 NOV midterms are the next political marker, with more mediated talks expected this week. October was the worst month for Hormuz-region incidents since the war began (UKMTO via CBS News).
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded near $105.94 at 10:55 UTC on 03 NOV, down 2.57% over 24 hours (straits.live, Yahoo Finance futures, intraday). Outlets differ on 02 NOV: Euronews had about $108.5 (down ~2.8%) and CBS/AFP cited $105.03. Goldman raised its year-end Brent forecast to $105 from $90 (Euronews, 02 NOV). AAA US gas: $4.15 on 03 NOV, down 12¢ from $4.27 a week earlier.
  • Bypass and Outlook: straits.live’s latest figures show Petroline to Yanbu at 83% of its 7.0M bpd capacity (Saudi energy minister’s rate, 6 OCT; 28 days old) and ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd (Argus, 15 MAY); Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) reports no utilization. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war flow of about 20M bpd.

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How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.