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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 16 Oct 2026 (Day 230)

Published 16 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 16 October 2026? No. On Day 230 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 6 ships transited on 14 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 14 Oct 2026? 6 vessel transits were logged on 14 Oct 2026 (2 inbound, 4 outbound), about 7% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $105.73 on 16 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Strait effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, Day 230 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 6 transits logged on 14 Oct (the most recent complete day reported by Windward) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 6 transits on 14 OCT (the most recent complete day reported; data as of 14 OCT, edition of 15 OCT; two days old on 16 OCT) — 2 inbound (both southbound) and 4 outbound (1 northbound, 3 southbound). That is roughly 7% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm, down from 14 on 12 OCT. Dark crossings were 2 of 6 on 14 OCT, both outbound tankers; inbound dark was 0. Windward had not published 15 OCT data at time of writing.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow. Vortexa/Windward put crude outflow from the Gulf at 10.05M bbl on 13 OCT (6.02M bbl ship-to-ship, 4.03M bbl terminal loadings), up from 6.96M bbl on 12 OCT; the 7-day average is 9.0M bbl a day. Kpler (reported 30 SEP) put September crude through the strait at about 9.7M bpd. Barrels are holding near 9–10M a day while hull counts sit more than 90% below the ~88/day norm.
  • Count Dispute: Sources diverge sharply. Windward logged 6 vessels on 14 OCT. CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that more than 40 commercial ships transited in the prior 24 hours, citing it as proof the US and partners control the strait. JMIC counted 121 US-facilitated transits for 11–14 OCT (about 30 a day), while its independent tracking shows single-digit daily movements. Reuters/Kpler counted 7 on 06 OCT. The gap is largely US-facilitated and AIS-dark traffic; the hero figure stays on Windward’s vessel-level count, and IMF PortWatch AIS-only counts are not used.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log stands at 103 incidents (95 attacks, 8 near-misses) as of 14 OCT. Container ships are now targets: GFS PRIDE (Singapore) was struck on 13 OCT, caught fire and sank, all 21 crew evacuated; GFS GISELLE (Singapore) was struck on 14 OCT per Windward (Gulf News dates it 15 OCT) and left the area under its own power. Iran says PRIDE hit a mine; Singapore reports a projectile, and CENTCOM and JMIC dispute the mine claim. JMIC logged 8 projectile attacks on 11 and 13 OCT (4 tankers, 4 container ships), rates the strait SEVERE, and counts 149 confirmed incidents since 01 MAR; the IMO lists 24 seafarer fatalities region-wide (as of 14 OCT). Windward’s MIOC warns targeting may extend to the Fujairah shuttle zone. Earlier hits: ANGOLA PROSPERITY and PETRO DOLPHIN (11 OCT; two Indian seafarers missing), VALTHERA (10 OCT), GEM NO.2 (09 OCT).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 30.0x peacetime on 15 OCT (straits.live, 2131Z), with ~170 vessels holding at anchor offshore, many off Dubai, and 45 AIS-dark tankers (7-day average 69.0). Windward counted 982 vessels in the Gulf on 14 OCT. Iran’s PGSA blacklist stood at 84 vessels in Windward’s last stated total (06 OCT; no newer total has been published, so that figure is ten days old). VLCC rates for Hormuz voyages topped $1M per day (Seatrade, 02 OCT; more than 48 hours old).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Windward’s MIOC assesses (04 OCT) that with no exports of its own left to protect, Iran is raising the cost of rival flows; its latest assessment (15 OCT edition) flags a shift from tankers to container ships. Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September (Vortexa). On 08 OCT the US sanctioned 22 more tankers and dozens of individuals and companies tied to Iran’s oil trade (gCaptain). The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, had redirected 135 vessels and disabled 4 as of 10–11 OCT (gCaptain). Persian Gulf GPS jamming fell to 42 vessels on 14 OCT, 71.6% below the 7-day average; 87,010 unique vessels have been jammed since 28 FEB.
  • Talks: No deal and no formal talks reported through 15 OCT. Iran rejected the US reply to its seven conditions for reopening the Strait as insufficient (reported 11 OCT), and Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said on 04 OCT the Strait stays closed until those conditions are met. Vice President Vance told Reuters (06 OCT) that Iran must make a meaningful cut to its enrichment capacity. Unconfirmed 08 OCT reports that Iran could reopen within a week have not been borne out. CENTCOM’s 15 OCT statement rejected Iranian claims of control and of a mine sinking; no diplomatic opening was reported.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC Navy reiterated on 09 OCT that ships using routes Iran has not approved will be pursued, and on 13 OCT its commander warned Iran will sink US ships that approach the strait. Iran’s navy said on 13 OCT it deployed operational units east of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea to watch traffic; a US official told Reuters the IRGC is using unarmed spotters to find targets (anonymous sourcing, unconfirmed). CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that the US and regional partners control the strait and commercial ships keep transiting under protection, and that the US blockade of Iran remains in full effect.
  • Wildcard: Red Sea: Windward’s 15 OCT edition lists 31 Bab-el-Mandeb and 55 Suez crossings (period per its summary). A tanker reported explosions close aboard ~60 nm south of Al Mukha, Yemen on 04 OCT (no damage, crew safe). Houthi strikes hit Riyadh airport on 10–11 OCT; King Khalid International is closed until 2100 GMT on 17 OCT, with 3,000+ flights cancelled or no-fly in one week (Gulf News, 15 OCT). Saudi Arabia struck Houthi targets on 13 OCT, and straits.live reports a Houthi attack on the presidential palace in Aden on 15 OCT with at least five killed.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT). Tehran ties reopening to its seven conditions (04 OCT). The Atlantic reported (07 OCT) that the White House has asked the Pentagon for options for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly before the 03 NOV midterms. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said (reported 05 OCT) market pressure will worsen until the Strait reopens and refilling global stockpiles could take two years. QatarEnergy’s LNG force majeure runs into November for some buyers (Windward, 02 OCT) — Qatar supplies about a fifth of global LNG heading into winter.
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded at $105.73 on 15 OCT (-0.23% over 24h; straits.live, 2131Z), down from $106.36 on 13 OCT and above the $104.72 settle on 09 OCT. WTI was $91.18 on 08 OCT (straits.live; no newer exact print verified). Brent had jumped 4.15% to $104.64 on 08 OCT after The Atlantic’s report on Pentagon strike options. The IEA said 03 OCT that members have released 325M bbl of the 400M bbl pledged in March.
  • Bypass and Outlook: ADCOP to Fujairah runs at ~100% of its 1.5M bpd capacity and Goreh-Jask at ~40% (straits.live, 05 OCT; more than 48 hours old). Saudi Arabia said its East-West pipeline to Yanbu is running at full capacity (Trading Economics, 08 OCT), though straits.live showed Petroline at 0% on 05 OCT. Kpler says ~40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, versus 17% pre-war (late SEP) — bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd, and a tanker was struck east of Fujairah on 08 OCT.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.