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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 14 Oct 2026 (Day 228)

Published 14 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 14 October 2026? No. On Day 228 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 14 ships transited on 12 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 12 Oct 2026? 14 vessel transits were logged on 12 Oct 2026 (8 inbound, 6 outbound), about 16% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $106.36 on 14 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Strait effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, Day 228 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 14 transits logged on 12 Oct 2026 (the most recent complete day reported by Windward) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 14 transits on 12 OCT (the last complete day; data as of 12 OCT, Windward edition of 13 OCT) — 8 inbound (5 northern corridor, 3 southern; 2 dark) and 6 outbound (1 northern, 4 southern, 1 unknown; 4 dark). That is roughly 16% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm. Dark crossings were 6 of 14 (43%) on 12 OCT, up from 3 on 11 OCT and well above the ~2/day 7-day average; all four dark tankers took the southern corridor. Inbound was 2 tankers, 3 bulk carriers and 3 cargo vessels; outbound was 2 tankers, 1 bulk carrier, 2 cargo vessels and 1 other. Windward had not published 13 OCT data at time of writing, so 12 OCT remains the most recent complete day reported (two days old).
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is softening. Windward/Vortexa put Gulf of Oman crude outflow at 62.8M bbl on 39 tankers for 05–11 OCT, down 15% from 73.6M bbl the week before; almost all of the drop was ship-to-ship transfers (37.0M to 24.3M bbl, −34%) while terminal loadings rose to 38.5M bbl. For 27 SEP–11 OCT the total was 143.0M bbl, about 9.5M bbl a day. Reuters/Kpler (08 OCT) put late-September oil transit near 10M bpd, about 74% of pre-conflict, with only ~60% of non-Iranian Gulf crude exports physically crossing Hormuz.
  • Count Dispute: Reuters/Kpler reported (08 OCT) that only 7 commercial vessels passed on 06 OCT, the lowest since 23 JUL, and warned that AIS-dark transits mean tracked counts understate traffic; Windward logged 11 for the same day. USNI News (09 OCT) cites 143 total transits for 28 SEP–07 OCT, about 14 a day — in line with Windward’s recent run rate. JMIC said (reported 02 OCT) independent tracking shows single-digit daily transits each way while US NCAGS put traffic near ~30 a day. IMF PortWatch-based counts (4 on 04 OCT, per straits.live) are AIS-only and structurally low — not used for the hero figure.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s incident log stands at 101 (93 attacks, 8 near-misses) in its 13 OCT edition, up from 97. UKMTO warnings 164-26 to 169-26 cover six vessels struck on 11 OCT — five tankers and a container ship. Four were hit transiting the strait (three outbound tankers, including the Liberia-flagged VLCC ANGOLA PROSPERITY, fire, crew safe; and an inbound container ship); PETRO DOLPHIN took a drone strike at the Sohar anchorage, Oman (two Indian seafarers missing). One outbound tanker had steering-gear damage and diverted to the Fujairah anchorage. On 12 OCT the IRGC Navy claimed it set a third “violating” supertanker on fire within 48 hours; UKMTO has not confirmed it, and Iranian state media’s mine claim (reported 11 OCT) is also unconfirmed. Earlier hits: VALTHERA (10 OCT) and GEM NO.2 (09 OCT). Lloyd’s List counted 12 attacks 28 SEP–07 OCT, the highest weekly total of the war. On 13 OCT, straits.live (2122Z) cited UK and maritime-agency reports of container ships and tankers struck by projectiles in the strait, one report counting six ships in a single day (secondary source; vessel-level detail unconfirmed). The Iranian Navy said a tanker caught fire in the eastern strait after switching off its tracking and entering a prohibited area, and the IRGC said it struck another tanker.
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 30.0x peacetime on 13 OCT (straits.live, 2122Z), with ~120 vessels holding at anchor offshore, many off Dubai, and 82 AIS-dark tankers (7-day average 85.8) in that report. Windward counted 1,024 vessels in the Gulf in its 13 OCT edition (data as of 12 OCT). VLCC rates for Hormuz voyages topped $1M per day (Seatrade, 02 OCT). Iran’s PGSA blacklist stood at 84 vessels in Windward’s last stated total (06 OCT; no newer total has been published, so that figure is more than 48 hours old).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Windward’s MIOC assesses (04 OCT) that with no exports of its own left to protect, Iran is raising the cost of rival flows — strikes on Kuwait- and UAE-affiliated tankers are likely to continue. Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September (Vortexa data). On 08 OCT the US sanctioned 22 more tankers and dozens of individuals and companies tied to Iran’s oil trade (gCaptain). Blacklisted vessels are going dark at the Fujairah and Sohar anchorages rather than crossing: 10 did so, seven of them there (Windward, 11 OCT).
  • Talks: No deal and no formal talks reported. Iran rejected the US reply to its seven conditions for reopening the Strait as insufficient (India Today / Jerusalem Post, reported 11 OCT), and straits.live describes the Iran-US channel as deadlocked. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said on 04 OCT that the Strait will not reopen until the US meets those conditions. Vice President Vance told Reuters (06 OCT) that Iran must make a meaningful cut to its enrichment capacity. Unconfirmed reports on 08 OCT that Iran said the Strait could reopen within a week have not been verified, and no reopening has followed. Straits.live headlines (12 OCT) say Iran is reviewing US proposals on reopening; no response has been published. Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC Navy reiterated on 09 OCT that ships using routes Iran has not approved will be pursued across the region, after Iran warned (08 OCT) it will close routes it deems unauthorized, including the southern corridor along Oman’s coast. US CENTCOM says it has cleared mines from the primary transit lanes and that they are open to vessels not violating the US blockade of Iran, and said (10 OCT) that 133 vessels have been redirected under the blockade. India condemned the 11 OCT attacks on tankers (Indian Express). Sixty countries backed an EU declaration opposing fees on Hormuz shipping (straits.live, 12 OCT). On 13 OCT the IRGC Navy commander warned Iran will sink US ships that approach the strait, and a US official called Iran’s attacks on shipping “unjustified acts of aggression” (straits.live, 13 OCT). Windward shows the US blockade active since it resumed on 14 JUL.
  • Wildcard: Red Sea: A tanker reported multiple explosions close aboard ~60 nm south of Al Mukha, Yemen on 04 OCT (no damage, crew safe); Windward MIOC assessed a Houthi attack most likely. Bab-el-Mandeb saw 22 inbound and 12 outbound crossings on 12 OCT (7-day averages 17.6 and 19.3). Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport on 10–11 OCT killed at least 18, and the Houthis call oil facilities legitimate targets; no Red Sea ship attacks have been reported since (Windward, 13 OCT). Saudi Arabia struck Houthi targets in Yemen on 13 OCT, escalating the Red Sea conflict (straits.live). Gulf GPS jamming fell to 55 vessels on 12 OCT, 61.5% below the 7-day average, with 54 false ship-to-ship meetings — a one-day dip after 160 jammed on 11 OCT.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT). Tehran ties reopening to its seven conditions (04 OCT). The Atlantic reported (07 OCT) that the White House has asked the Pentagon for options for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly before the 03 NOV midterms. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said (reported 05 OCT) market pressure will worsen until the Strait reopens and refilling global stockpiles could take two years. QatarEnergy’s LNG force majeure runs into November for some buyers (Windward, 02 OCT) — Qatar supplies about a fifth of global LNG heading into winter.
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded at $106.36 on 13 OCT (+0.25% over 24h; straits.live, 2122Z), up from $106.05 on 12 OCT and $104.72 at the 09 OCT settle. Brent had jumped 4.15% to $104.64 on 08 OCT after The Atlantic’s report on Pentagon strike options. WTI was $91.18 on 08 OCT (straits.live brief). The IEA said 03 OCT that members have released 325M bbl of the 400M bbl pledged in March.
  • Bypass and Outlook: ADCOP to Fujairah runs at ~100% of its 1.5M bpd capacity and Goreh-Jask at ~40% (straits.live, 05 OCT). Saudi Arabia said its East-West pipeline to Yanbu is running at full capacity (Trading Economics, 08 OCT), though straits.live still showed Petroline at 0% on 05 OCT. Kpler says ~40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, versus 17% pre-war — bypass routes help, but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

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How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.