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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 10 Nov 2026 (Day 255)

Published 10 Nov 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 10 November 2026? No. On Day 255 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 11 ships transited on 7 Nov 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 7 Nov 2026? 11 vessel transits were logged on 7 Nov 2026 (7 inbound, 4 outbound), about 13% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $90.66 on 10 November 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 255 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 11 transits logged on 7 Nov 2026 (the most recent complete day published; 3 days old) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 11 transits on 07 NOV (data as of 07 NOV, the most recent complete day published; 3 days old, no 08 NOV or 09 NOV count yet) — 7 inbound and 4 outbound, about 13% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Corridor split: inbound 2 northern and 5 southern; outbound 1 northern, 1 southern and 2 unknown. Windward’s two-day window to 18:00 UTC on 08 NOV shows 14 crossings, 8 of them dark (a floor). Day 255 of the closure.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Kpler put direct Hormuz crude exports at about 7.3M bpd in the week ended 28 OCT (13 days old, not refreshed), under half the pre-war level of about 16M bpd on Kpler’s basis. Windward’s 07 NOV page carries no volume figure, so treat the volume number as stale.
  • Count Dispute: Sources differ on scale, not direction. Windward counts 11 on 07 NOV; straits.live (AIS-only) shows 1 commercial transit on 01 NOV, against about 85 a day pre-crisis. We use Windward and flag the gap. Windward’s track-by-track review of the 06–08 NOV window confirmed 4 dark crossings (3 outbound, 1 inbound), none by a sanctioned vessel.
  • Fleet Activity: The IRGC said it struck three tankers on 08 NOV for using unapproved routes in coordination with the US military, and an oil tanker caught fire near Hormuz (Al Jazeera, 09 NOV; IRGC claim, vessels not named, unverified). Windward logged a Vanuatu-flag crude tanker (about 333 m) struck by a projectile on 06 NOV after going AIS-dark in late October, and a Barbados-flag crude tanker attacked on 03 NOV; locations not reported.
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (07 OCT; 34 days old, not refreshed). Its 10 NOV report lists about 50 vessels holding offshore, many off Dubai, down from about 100 in its 06 NOV report. Windward’s GPS-jamming tally for 06 NOV shows 507 vessels jammed in the Persian Gulf, up 26.7% on the 7-day average; provisional data puts 07 NOV at 261.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Iran’s 04 NOV proposal would reopen the Strait within two days if the US meets seven demands, including lifting the naval blockade (Al Jazeera, 04 NOV); no side has confirmed a start date. Israel Hayom reported on 09 NOV that an Iran deal worth about $8 billion could land on Trump’s desk (single outlet, unconfirmed).
  • Talks: Qatar’s prime minister met Trump on 09 NOV on ending the war (Al Jazeera, Fox News). Secretary of State Rubio said a breakthrough is unlikely given Iran’s demands (CNBC, 09 NOV). Talks remain indirect, through Qatari, Pakistani and Saudi mediators.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC claims strikes on three tankers on 08 NOV (unverified). Earlier, US strikes hit Qeshm Island early on 03 NOV, and UKMTO logged tanker hits 14 nm northeast of Limah, Oman on 03 NOV and 50 nm north of Madinat ash-Shamal, Qatar on 04 NOV (Al Jazeera, 04–05 NOV). Windward’s GPS-jamming data shows no easing in the Gulf on 06 NOV.
  • Wildcard: US Strike Window: Trump signalled restraint on 09 NOV, with new Iran attacks seen as unlikely, and oil fell on the signal (CNBC, 09 NOV). CBS live updates describe the US as holding the war at a status quo while the military stays ready. On 04 NOV he had said he would do it again (PTI via Business Standard). The strike window stays open.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date. Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; 29 days old, not refreshed). Iran says it can reopen the Strait within two days once its demands are met (04 NOV), but Rubio said on 09 NOV a breakthrough is unlikely.
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded near $90.66 at 10:59 UTC on 10 NOV, down 6.48% over 24 hours (straits.live), from $98.16 on 06 NOV. AAA US gas: $4.01 on 09 NOV (latest posted), down 16¢ from $4.17 a week earlier and $4.37 a month earlier.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Saudi Aramco’s CEO said East-West pipeline capacity rose from 2M to 7M bpd (CBS News, 22 OCT; 19 days old). straits.live’s latest figures show Petroline to Yanbu at 83% of its 7.0M bpd capacity (06 OCT; 35 days old) and ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd (Argus, 15 MAY). QatarEnergy was reported on 28 SEP to be extending LNG force majeure through November, with Edison told deliveries stay suspended until early December (The Deep Dive, 28 SEP; 43 days old, may be superseded). The Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda was hit by unidentified objects on 30 OCT with no injuries (Al Jazeera, 05 NOV).

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How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.