Skip to main content

The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
Full Intel

Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 20 Oct 2026 (Day 234)

Published 20 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 20 October 2026? No. On Day 234 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 15 ships transited on 19 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 19 Oct 2026? 15 vessel transits were logged on 19 Oct 2026 (8 inbound, 7 outbound), about 17% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $109.62 on 20 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Closed to normal commercial traffic, Day 234 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 15 transits logged on 19 Oct (the most recent complete day) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 15 transits on 19 OCT (the last complete day; data as of 19 OCT, published 20 OCT) — 8 inbound (4 northbound, 4 southbound) and 7 outbound (5 northbound, 2 southbound), 9 via the northern corridor and 6 via the southern. That is roughly 17% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm, up from 12 on 18 OCT and 5 on 17 OCT. All 15 crossings were AIS-visible (0 dark, against 4 of 12 on 18 OCT), and 4 of the 15 were rated high smuggling risk (3 tankers, 1 bulk carrier).
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Vortexa/Windward put crude outflow through Hormuz at 11.1M bbl on 17 OCT and 8.72M bbl on 18 OCT (no 19 OCT figure yet), against a 7-day average of 9.81M bbl a day. Ship-to-ship transfers fell from 8.06M bbl on 17 OCT to 0.64M bbl on 18 OCT while terminal loadings rose from 3.05M bbl to 8.08M bbl. Kpler data cited by Gulf News (19 OCT) put Gulf crude flows at about 8.5M bpd last week, roughly half the 17.1M bpd pre-war baseline. Fujairah loaded 15 crude cargoes, about 22.27M bbl (3.18M bpd), on 12–18 OCT, mostly UAE Murban piped in via ADCOP without crossing Hormuz (Vortexa via Windward).
  • Count Dispute: Sources diverge sharply. Windward logged 15 vessels on 19 OCT (12 on 18 OCT). CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that more than 40 commercial ships transited in the prior 24 hours (Gulf News, 16 OCT; not independently verified). JMIC counted 121 US-facilitated transits for 11–14 OCT. straits.live shows only 2 commercial transits on 11 OCT (IMF PortWatch, AIS-visible only; not used). CENTCOM says about 97% of ships transiting have passed safely (Fox News, 18 OCT). The hero figure stays on Windward’s vessel-level count.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log stands at 106 incidents (98 attacks, 8 near-misses) as of 19 OCT, with no new incident logged on 19 OCT. The latest is a Netherlands-flagged tug hit by two projectiles NE of Khor Fakkan in the Gulf of Oman on 18 OCT, with one minor injury (UKMTO). On 16 OCT a Liberia-flagged Suezmax was reportedly hit by an RPG from a small boat about 78 NM NE of Al Jubail (19:22 UTC; moderate confidence) and a second tanker was struck about 68 NM NE of Al Jubail (09:00 UTC), its crew evacuated. GFS GISELLE (Singapore) was struck on 14 OCT; GFS PRIDE (Singapore) was struck on 13 OCT, caught fire and sank, all 21 crew evacuated. The IRGC claimed a tanker hit a naval mine in the southern strait on 18 OCT (IRGC claim via Gulf News, 19 OCT; unverified).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 30.0x peacetime in straits.live’s report of 20 OCT (0158Z), with about 160 vessels holding at anchor away from port, many off Dubai, and 61 AIS-dark tankers out of 252 screened (a floor count, same report). Windward counted 990 vessels in the Gulf on 19 OCT, 259 rated high risk and 586 moderate. About 6,000 seafarers are reported stranded near the strait after a UN maritime chief warned against passage (straits.live timeline, 19 OCT).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Windward’s MIOC assessed (04 OCT) that Iran is raising the cost of rival flows and flagged a shift from tankers to container ships, consistent with the GFS strikes of 13–14 OCT. Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September (Vortexa). The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, remains in full effect (CENTCOM, 15 OCT). Gulf GPS jamming hit 257 of 7,619 transmitting vessels on 19 OCT, 11.6% below the 7-day average, with 536 false ship-to-ship meetings (Windward).
  • Talks: No deal reported through 20 OCT. On 18 OCT Foreign Minister Araqchi said Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait within seven days of the US accepting its conditions remains on the table, and that Tehran is reviewing a US response (New Arab, 18 OCT); it was still on the table on 19 OCT (Gulf News). Pakistan is pushing US–Iran talks. President Trump said he expects a deal to end the war after the 03 NOV midterms and ruled out ground troops and nuclear weapons (Al Jazeera, 18 OCT). President Trump said on 18 OCT that the US could “soon finish the job” on Iran unless Tehran changes course (Truth Social, via Fox News). Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov arrived in Tehran on 19 OCT, calling for navigation to be restored with guarantees against renewed attack (Euronews, 19 OCT); Trump wrote on 18 OCT that Russia is doing “very little” to help Iran (Truth Social, via Euronews). The US waived some Russia-related sanctions on 19 OCT and oil fell (Mansfield Energy, 19 OCT).
  • Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation. IRGC Navy commander Rear Admiral Azmaei warned this week that any ship switching off its navigation systems will be treated as hostile (Al Jazeera, 18 OCT). On 13 OCT the IRGC warned it will sink US ships that approach the strait, and Iran’s navy said it deployed units east of Hormuz to watch traffic. CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that the US and partners control the strait and the US blockade of Iran remains in full effect.
  • Wildcard: Red Sea: Windward logged Bab-el-Mandeb crossings of 10 inbound and 23 outbound, and Suez crossings of 18 inbound and 27 outbound, on 19 OCT. Houthi missiles hit a military training camp in Shabwa, Yemen on 19 OCT, killing at least 53 soldiers per provincial authorities (Gulf News, 19 OCT), and Houthi strikes on Saudi targets continue (Fox News, 18 OCT). Egypt’s parliament is expected to vote this week on military aid to Saudi Arabia (Gulf News, 19 OCT).

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT). Tehran says it will open the Strait within seven days if its conditions are met, but the US has not agreed (18–19 OCT). US media report Trump ordered the military to prepare larger strikes after 03 NOV (Al Jazeera, 17 OCT; unconfirmed).
  • Oil Markets: Brent was $109.62 in straits.live’s report of 20 OCT (0158Z), up 1.46% over 24 hours, after trading near $108.41 on 19 OCT as the US waived some Russia sanctions (Mansfield Energy, 19 OCT), and touching $110 on 16 OCT, the first time since May (Al Jazeera). WTI traded near $101 on 19 OCT, down about $0.32 (intraday; Mansfield Energy; other outlets quoted $97.50–$100.40).
  • Bypass and Outlook: Straits.live (20 OCT report; no per-pipeline date given) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 38% of its 7.0M bpd capacity, ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd, and Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) with no utilization reported. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.