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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 19 Oct 2026 (Day 233)

Published 19 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 19 October 2026? No. On Day 233 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 12 ships transited on 18 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 18 Oct 2026? 12 vessel transits were logged on 18 Oct 2026 (5 inbound, 7 outbound), about 14% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $108.02 on 19 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Closed and disputed, Day 233 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 12 transits logged on 18 Oct against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 12 transits on 18 OCT (the last complete day; data as of 18 OCT, published 19 OCT) — 5 inbound (2 northbound, 3 southbound) and 7 outbound (4 northbound, 3 southbound). That is roughly 14% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm, up from 5 on 17 OCT. 4 of the 12 crossings ran dark (3 inbound, 1 outbound), and 5 of the 12 were rated high smuggling risk (3 tankers, 2 bulk carriers). The hero figure stays at 12 until Windward posts a newer complete day.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Vortexa/Windward put crude outflow from the Gulf at 14.14M bbl on 15 OCT (9.06M bbl ship-to-ship, 5.08M bbl terminal loadings), up from 6.82M bbl on 14 OCT; the 7-day average is 9.76M bbl a day. Kpler data cited by Al Jazeera (18 OCT) shows about 20.8M bbl on 08 OCT but only 2.9M bbl on 11 OCT. Kpler put flows at 11.6M bpd in the seven days to 13 OCT, about 68% of the 17.1M bpd pre-war baseline (Al Jazeera, 17 OCT). Fujairah loaded 15 crude cargoes, about 22.27M bbl (3.18M bpd), on 12–18 OCT, mostly UAE Murban piped in via ADCOP without crossing Hormuz; ship-to-ship transfers at Gulf of Oman anchorages moved about 3.97M bpd of the 7.94M bpd shipped out of the Gulf of Oman on 12–14 OCT (Vortexa via Windward).
  • Count Dispute: Sources diverge sharply. Windward logged 12 vessels on 18 OCT (5 on 17 OCT). CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that more than 40 commercial ships transited in the prior 24 hours (Gulf News, 16 OCT; not independently verified). JMIC counted 121 US-facilitated transits for 11–14 OCT. Kpler logged 18 tanker crossings on 07 OCT, 17 on 08 OCT, 8 on 09 OCT and 1 on 10 OCT (preliminary; London Insider, 14 OCT). straits.live shows only 2 commercial transits on 11 OCT (IMF PortWatch, AIS-visible only; not used). CENTCOM says about 97% of ships transiting have passed safely (Fox News, 18 OCT). The hero figure stays on Windward’s vessel-level count.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log stands at 106 incidents (98 attacks, 8 near-misses) as of 18 OCT. On 18 OCT an unidentified tug was hit by two projectiles NE of Khor Fakkan in the Gulf of Oman, with one minor injury (UKMTO; likely AIS dark). On 16 OCT a Liberia-flagged Suezmax was reportedly hit by an RPG from a small boat about 78 NM NE of Al Jubail (19:22 UTC; moderate confidence) and a second tanker was struck about 68 NM NE of Al Jubail (09:00 UTC), its crew evacuated. GFS GISELLE (Singapore) was struck on 14 OCT; GFS PRIDE (Singapore) was struck on 13 OCT, caught fire and sank, all 21 crew evacuated. Six vessels were hit on 11 OCT, including ANGOLA PROSPERITY and PETRO DOLPHIN (two Indian seafarers missing), the most in a single day since the war began. On 17–18 OCT the IRGC said two tankers, about 2M bbl each, hit naval mines on routes Iran had not authorised and caught fire (IRGC/IRNA via Al Jazeera, 18 OCT; unverified).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 30.0x peacetime in straits.live’s report of 19 OCT (0027Z), with about 120 vessels holding at anchor away from port, many off Dubai, and 157 AIS-dark tankers (a floor count). Windward counted 985 vessels in the Gulf on 17 OCT, 251 rated high risk and 591 moderate. Iran’s PGSA blacklist stood at 84 vessels in Windward’s last stated total (06 OCT; no newer total published, so that figure is thirteen days old). VLCC rates for Hormuz voyages topped $1M per day (Seatrade, 02 OCT; more than 48 hours old).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Windward’s MIOC assessed (04 OCT) that with no exports of its own left to protect, Iran is raising the cost of rival flows, and its recent assessments flag a shift from tankers to container ships. Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September (Vortexa). The US sanctioned 22 more tankers on 08 OCT. The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, had redirected 135 vessels and disabled 4 as of 10–11 OCT (gCaptain); 11 Iran-affiliated LPG tankers attempted to cross the blockade line between 31 AUG and 15 OCT, none from 12 to 15 OCT. Gulf GPS jamming hit 142 of 7,776 transmitting vessels on 18 OCT, 46.7% below the 7-day average; 88,415 unique vessels have been jammed since 28 FEB.
  • Talks: No deal reported through 19 OCT. On 18 OCT Foreign Minister Araqchi said Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait within seven days of the US accepting its conditions remains on the table, and that Tehran is reviewing a US response (New Arab, 18 OCT). Iran’s security chief said last week that talks had stalled because Washington had not addressed all seven conditions. Pakistan is pushing US–Iran talks. President Trump said he expects a deal to end the war after the 03 NOV midterms and ruled out ground troops and nuclear weapons (Al Jazeera, 18 OCT). President Trump said on 18 OCT that the US could “soon finish the job” on Iran unless Tehran changes course (Truth Social, via Fox News); Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is due in Tehran on 19 OCT.
  • Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation. IRGC Navy commander Rear Admiral Azmaei warned this week that any ship switching off its navigation systems will be treated as hostile (Al Jazeera, 18 OCT). On 13 OCT the IRGC warned it will sink US ships that approach the strait, and Iran’s navy said it deployed units east of Hormuz to watch traffic. CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that the US and partners control the strait and the US blockade of Iran remains in full effect.
  • Wildcard: Red Sea: Windward logged Bab-el-Mandeb crossings of 17 inbound and 23 outbound, and Suez crossings of 20 inbound and 24 outbound, on 17 OCT; 642 cargo and tanker vessels are transmitting AIS in the Red Sea. A tanker reported explosions close aboard about 60 nm south of Al Mukha, Yemen on 04 OCT (no damage, crew safe). Houthi strikes hit Riyadh airport on 10–11 OCT (Gulf News, 15 OCT).

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT). Tehran says it will open the Strait within seven days if its conditions are met, but the US has not agreed (18 OCT). The Atlantic reported (07 OCT) that the White House asked the Pentagon for renewed strike options, and US media report Trump ordered the military to prepare larger strikes after 03 NOV (Al Jazeera, 17 OCT; unconfirmed). Saudi Aramco’s CEO said (reported 05 OCT) refilling global stockpiles could take two years. QatarEnergy’s LNG force majeure ran into November for some buyers (Windward, 02 OCT; not re-verified this run).
  • Oil Markets: Brent was $108.02 in straits.live’s report of 19 OCT (0027Z), down 1.67% from the prior settle, after settling at $109.86 on 17 OCT (straits.live reading, 2354Z) and touching $110 on 16 OCT, the first time since May (Al Jazeera). No newer exact WTI print was verified this run; the last verified was $91.18 on 08 OCT. The IEA said 03 OCT that members have released 325M bbl of the 400M bbl pledged in March.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Straits.live (16 OCT; no utilization date given) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 38% of its 7.0M bpd capacity, ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd, and Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) with no utilization reported. Kpler says about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, versus 17% pre-war (late SEP) — bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd, and a tanker was struck east of Fujairah on 08 OCT.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.