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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 18 Oct 2026 (Day 232)

Published 18 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 18 October 2026? No. On Day 232 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 6 ships transited on 14 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 14 Oct 2026? 6 vessel transits were logged on 14 Oct 2026 (2 inbound, 4 outbound), about 7% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $109.86 on 18 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Commercial hull traffic remains a fraction of normal, Day 232 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 6 transits logged on 14 Oct (Windward, the newest complete day available, four days old) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward’s newest complete day is 14 OCT: 6 transits (data as of 14 OCT, edition of 15 OCT; four days old on 18 OCT — Windward had not published 15, 16 or 17 OCT at time of writing) — 2 inbound (both southbound) and 4 outbound (1 northbound, 3 southbound). That is roughly 7% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm, down from 14 on 12 OCT. Dark crossings were 2 of 6 on 14 OCT, both outbound tankers; inbound dark was 0. The hero figure stays at 6 until Windward posts a newer complete day.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow. Vortexa/Windward put crude outflow from the Gulf at 10.05M bbl on 13 OCT (6.02M bbl ship-to-ship, 4.03M bbl terminal loadings), up from 6.96M bbl on 12 OCT; the 7-day average is 9.0M bbl a day. Kpler (reported 30 SEP) put September crude through the strait at about 9.7M bpd. Barrels are holding near 9–10M a day while hull counts sit more than 90% below the ~88/day norm. Kpler put flows at 11.6M bpd in the seven days to 13 OCT, about 68% of the 17.1M bpd pre-war baseline (Al Jazeera, 17 OCT).
  • Count Dispute: Sources diverge sharply. Windward logged 6 vessels on 14 OCT. CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that more than 40 commercial ships transited in the prior 24 hours, citing it as proof the US and partners control the strait (Gulf News, 16 OCT; not independently verified). JMIC counted 121 US-facilitated transits for 11–14 OCT (about 30 a day), while its independent tracking shows single-digit daily movements. A MarineTraffic-fed AIS tracker (hormuz.data-tracking.net) listed 9 crossings on 16 OCT and a 24-hour card of 20 as of 17 OCT 10:01 UTC — AIS-visible only and internally inconsistent, so not used. Reuters/Kpler counted 7 on 06 OCT. UKMTO reported 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits in the seven days to 16 OCT (Al Jazeera, 17 OCT; not vessel-level verified). The gap is largely US-facilitated and AIS-dark traffic; the hero figure stays on Windward’s vessel-level count, and IMF PortWatch AIS-only counts are not used.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log stands at 103 incidents (95 attacks, 8 near-misses) as of 14 OCT. Container ships are now targets: GFS PRIDE (Singapore) was struck on 13 OCT, caught fire and sank, all 21 crew evacuated; GFS GISELLE (Singapore) was struck on 14 OCT, took hull damage and reached anchorage under its own power with all 22 crew safe (Gulf News, 16 OCT). Iran says PRIDE hit a mine; Singapore reports a projectile, and CENTCOM said an IRGC projectile sank her. Reuters, citing UKMTO and IMO data, counted at least five incidents around Hormuz in 48 hours to 16 OCT and reports Iran shifting toward ship-to-ship oil transfers. JMIC logged 8 projectile attacks on 11 and 13 OCT (4 tankers, 4 container ships), rates the strait SEVERE, and counts 149 confirmed incidents since 01 MAR; the IMO lists 24 seafarer fatalities region-wide (as of 14 OCT). Windward’s MIOC warns targeting may extend to the Fujairah shuttle zone. On 17 OCT the IRGC said a supertanker carrying more than 2M bbl hit a mine on an “unauthorised” route and caught fire (Iranian state media; unverified), while CENTCOM says the strait is cleared of mines and ships are being hit by projectiles; a tanker also reported an RPG strike from a small boat 78 nm northeast of Jubail, a new attack type (UKMTO). UKMTO counted at least 12 confirmed ship attacks in the week to 16 OCT, the most since the war began on 28 FEB (Al Jazeera, 17 OCT). Earlier hits: ANGOLA PROSPERITY and PETRO DOLPHIN (11 OCT; two Indian seafarers missing), VALTHERA (10 OCT), GEM NO.2 (09 OCT).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 30.0x peacetime on 17 OCT (straits.live, 2354Z), with ~180 vessels holding at anchor offshore, many off Dubai, and 124 AIS-dark tankers (a floor count). Windward counted 982 vessels in the Gulf on 14 OCT. Iran’s PGSA blacklist stood at 84 vessels in Windward’s last stated total (06 OCT; no newer total has been published, so that figure is twelve days old). VLCC rates for Hormuz voyages topped $1M per day (Seatrade, 02 OCT; more than 48 hours old).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Windward’s MIOC assesses (04 OCT) that with no exports of its own left to protect, Iran is raising the cost of rival flows; its latest assessment (15 OCT edition) flags a shift from tankers to container ships. Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September (Vortexa). On 08 OCT the US sanctioned 22 more tankers and dozens of individuals and companies tied to Iran’s oil trade (gCaptain). The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, had redirected 135 vessels and disabled 4 as of 10–11 OCT (gCaptain). Persian Gulf GPS jamming fell to 42 vessels on 14 OCT, 71.6% below the 7-day average; 87,010 unique vessels have been jammed since 28 FEB.
  • Talks: No deal reported through 17 OCT. Pakistan, Qatar and other mediators are still passing messages, with no breakthrough expected soon; US media report President Trump has ordered the military to be ready for larger strikes after the 03 NOV midterms (Al Jazeera, 17 OCT; unconfirmed). Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran is reviewing the US response to a proposed seven-day plan to reopen the Strait (Gulf News, 16 OCT), while Iran reaffirmed the closure, said passage must be coordinated, and tied reopening to a US exit from the region (straits.live timeline, 16 OCT). President Trump said negotiations continue and Qatar reaffirmed its mediator role (Thotharis briefing, 16 OCT). Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said on 04 OCT the Strait stays closed until Iran’s seven conditions are met, and Vice President Vance told Reuters (06 OCT) that Iran must make a meaningful cut to its enrichment capacity. Unconfirmed 08 OCT reports that Iran could reopen within a week have not been borne out.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC Navy reiterated on 09 OCT that ships using routes Iran has not approved will be pursued, and on 13 OCT its commander warned Iran will sink US ships that approach the strait. Iran’s navy said on 13 OCT it deployed operational units east of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea to watch traffic; a US official told Reuters the IRGC is using unarmed spotters to find targets (anonymous sourcing, unconfirmed). CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that the US and regional partners control the strait and commercial ships keep transiting under protection, and that the US blockade of Iran remains in full effect; it said on 11 OCT it disabled the Panama-flagged M/V OCEAN MOLICA after she left an Iranian port.
  • Wildcard: Red Sea: Windward’s 15 OCT edition lists 31 Bab-el-Mandeb and 55 Suez crossings (period per its summary). A tanker reported explosions close aboard ~60 nm south of Al Mukha, Yemen on 04 OCT (no damage, crew safe). Houthi strikes hit Riyadh airport on 10–11 OCT; King Khalid International is closed until 2100 GMT on 17 OCT, with 3,000+ flights cancelled or no-fly in one week (Gulf News, 15 OCT). Saudi Arabia struck Houthi targets on 13 OCT, and straits.live reports a Houthi attack on the presidential palace in Aden on 15 OCT with at least five killed.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT). Tehran ties reopening to its seven conditions (04 OCT). The Atlantic reported (07 OCT) that the White House has asked the Pentagon for options for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly before the 03 NOV midterms; a 16 OCT briefing says US strike planning reportedly included the MOAB munition. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said (reported 05 OCT) market pressure will worsen until the Strait reopens and refilling global stockpiles could take two years. QatarEnergy’s LNG force majeure runs into November for some buyers (Windward, 02 OCT) — Qatar supplies about a fifth of global LNG heading into winter.
  • Oil Markets: Brent settled at $109.86 on 17 OCT (straits.live, 2354Z), up about 0.2% from $109.69 on 16 OCT (it touched $110 that day, the first time since May per Al Jazeera) and above the $106.36 print of 13 OCT and the $104.72 settle of 09 OCT. WTI was $91.18 on 08 OCT (straits.live; no newer exact print verified). Brent had jumped 4.15% to $104.64 on 08 OCT after The Atlantic’s report on Pentagon strike options. The IEA said 03 OCT that members have released 325M bbl of the 400M bbl pledged in March.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Straits.live (16 OCT; no utilization date given) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 38% of its 7.0M bpd capacity, ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd, and Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) with no utilization reported. Saudi Arabia said its East-West pipeline to Yanbu is running at full capacity (Trading Economics, 08 OCT). Kpler says ~40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, versus 17% pre-war (late SEP) — bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd, and a tanker was struck east of Fujairah on 08 OCT.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.