Skip to main content

The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
Full Intel

Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 12 Oct 2026 (Day 226)

Published 12 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 12 October 2026? No. On Day 226 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 14 ships transited on 11 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 11 Oct 2026? 14 vessel transits were logged on 11 Oct 2026 (8 inbound, 6 outbound), about 16% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $104.72 on 12 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Strait contested and effectively closed to normal traffic, Day 226 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 14 transits logged on 11 Oct 2026 (the last complete day) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 14 transits on 11 OCT (the last complete day; data as of 11 OCT, Windward edition of 12 OCT) — 8 inbound (3 northern corridor, 5 southern; 1 dark) and 6 outbound (3 northern, 3 southern; 2 dark). That is roughly 16% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm, level with 14 on 10 OCT and up from 11 on 09 OCT. Inbound was 1 tanker, 1 bulk carrier and 6 cargo vessels; outbound was 2 tankers, 1 bulk carrier, 1 cargo vessel and 2 other. Across 08 OCT 2100Z–11 OCT 1800Z Windward counted 35 transits (20 inbound, 15 outbound), 8 of them dark (23%).
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, and volume is swinging hard. Windward/Vortexa put Hormuz crude outflow at 11.5M bbl on 10 OCT, back above the 7-day average after a 4.74M bbl dip on 08 OCT (11.1M on 07 OCT). Daily volume has alternated between ~4.7M and ~11M bbl through the week. Reuters/Kpler (08 OCT) put late-September oil transit near 10M bpd, about 74% of pre-conflict, with only ~60% of non-Iranian Gulf crude exports physically crossing Hormuz.
  • Count Dispute: Reuters/Kpler reported (08 OCT) that only 7 commercial vessels passed on 06 OCT, the lowest since 23 JUL, and warned that AIS-dark transits mean tracked counts understate traffic; Windward logged 11 for the same day. USNI News (09 OCT) cites 143 total transits for 28 SEP–07 OCT, about 14 a day — in line with Windward’s recent run rate. JMIC said (reported 02 OCT) independent tracking shows single-digit daily transits each way while US NCAGS put traffic near ~30 a day. IMF PortWatch-based counts (4 on 04 OCT, per straits.live) are AIS-only and structurally low — not used for the hero figure.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s incident log stands at 97 (89 attacks, 8 near-misses) in its 12 OCT edition, up from 93. On 11 OCT the Liberia-flagged VLCC ANGOLA PROSPERITY was struck on the port side by an unknown projectile while outbound in the Strait (fire, crew safe), and the Nicaragua-flagged tanker PETRO DOLPHIN was hit by a drone while waiting to berth off the Sohar anchorage, Oman — crew evacuated, two Indian seafarers missing. Earlier hits: a ~330 m Panama-flagged crude tanker 13 nm west of Al Jazeera, UAE (09 OCT, fire put out), an unidentified tanker east of Fujairah (08 OCT), another ~51 nm off Qatar (07 OCT) and ON PEACE (06 OCT). IMO says a ship has been struck nearly every day this month; Lloyd’s List counted 12 attacks 28 SEP–07 OCT, the highest weekly total of the war. Iranian state media claimed a supertanker hit a naval mine in the southern strait (reported 11 OCT) — not confirmed by a maritime authority.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 30.0x peacetime on 11 OCT (straits.live, 2010Z), with ~110 vessels stranded away from berth in that report and 152 AIS-visible vessels holding position in the Strait and Gulf watch box at 2120Z on 11 OCT. Windward counted 1,024 vessels in the Gulf on 11 OCT (1,035 on 10 OCT). VLCC rates for Hormuz voyages topped $1M per day (Seatrade, 02 OCT). Iran’s PGSA blacklist stood at 84 vessels in Windward’s last stated total (06 OCT; no newer total has been published, so that figure is more than 48 hours old).
  • New Framework: Windward’s MIOC assesses (04 OCT) that with no exports of its own left to protect, Iran is raising the cost of rival flows — strikes on Kuwait- and UAE-affiliated tankers are likely to continue. Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September (Vortexa data). On 08 OCT the US sanctioned 22 more tankers and dozens of individuals and companies tied to Iran’s oil trade (gCaptain). Blacklisted vessels are going dark at the Fujairah and Sohar anchorages rather than crossing: 10 did so, seven of them there (Windward, 11 OCT).
  • Talks: No deal and no formal talks reported. Iran rejected the US reply to its seven conditions for reopening the Strait as insufficient (India Today / Jerusalem Post, reported 11 OCT), and straits.live describes the Iran-US channel as deadlocked. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said on 04 OCT that the Strait will not reopen until the US meets those conditions. Vice President Vance told Reuters (06 OCT) that Iran must make a meaningful cut to its enrichment capacity. Unconfirmed reports on 08 OCT that Iran said the Strait could reopen within a week have not been verified, and no reopening has followed.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC Navy reiterated on 09 OCT that ships using routes Iran has not approved will be pursued across the region, after Iran warned (08 OCT) it will close routes it deems unauthorized, including the southern corridor along Oman’s coast. US CENTCOM says it has cleared mines from the primary transit lanes and that they are open to vessels not violating the US blockade of Iran, and said (10 OCT) that 133 vessels have been redirected under the blockade. India condemned the 11 OCT attacks on tankers (Indian Express). Windward shows the US blockade active since it resumed on 14 JUL.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Wildcard: Red Sea: A tanker reported multiple explosions close aboard ~60 nm south of Al Mukha, Yemen on 04 OCT (no damage, crew safe); Windward MIOC assessed a Houthi attack most likely. Bab-el-Mandeb crossings were 19 inbound and 21 outbound over the eight days to 11 OCT; Suez 23 and 15. Gulf GPS jamming hit 160 vessels on 11 OCT (of 7,330 transmitting), 11.3% above the 7-day average, with 215 false ship-to-ship meetings; Red Sea jamming hit 27 vessels, up 182.1% on the 7-day average.
  • Timeline: No reopening date. Tehran ties reopening to its seven conditions (04 OCT). The Atlantic reported (07 OCT) that the White House has asked the Pentagon for options for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly before the 03 NOV midterms. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said (reported 05 OCT) market pressure will worsen until the Strait reopens and refilling global stockpiles could take two years. QatarEnergy’s LNG force majeure runs into November for some buyers (Windward, 02 OCT) — Qatar supplies about a fifth of global LNG heading into winter.
  • Oil Markets: Brent settled at $104.72 on Friday 09 OCT (+0.42%; straits.live), the latest settle available; futures were closed over the weekend, so the 11 OCT strikes, the mine claim and Iran’s rejection of the US reply are not yet priced. Brent had jumped 4.15% to $104.64 on 08 OCT after The Atlantic’s report on Pentagon strike options. WTI was $91.18 on 08 OCT (straits.live brief). The IEA said 03 OCT that members have released 325M bbl of the 400M bbl pledged in March.
  • Bypass and Outlook: ADCOP to Fujairah runs at ~100% of its 1.5M bpd capacity and Goreh-Jask at ~40% (straits.live, 05 OCT). Saudi Arabia said its East-West pipeline to Yanbu is running at full capacity (Trading Economics, 08 OCT), though straits.live still showed Petroline at 0% on 05 OCT. Kpler says ~40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, versus 17% pre-war — bypass routes help, but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.