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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 11 Oct 2026 (Day 225)

Published 11 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 11 October 2026? No. On Day 225 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 14 ships transited on 10 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 10 Oct 2026? 14 vessel transits were logged on 10 Oct 2026 (6 inbound, 8 outbound), about 16% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $104.72 on 11 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: No reopening, Day 225 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 14 transits logged on 10 Oct 2026 (the most recent complete day, Windward) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 14 transits on 10 OCT, the most recent complete day reported (data as of 10 OCT, Windward edition of 11 OCT) — 6 inbound (2 northern corridor, 4 southern; 1 dark) and 8 outbound (4 northern, 4 southern; 1 dark). That is roughly 16% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm, up from 11 on 09 OCT and 8 on 08 OCT. Thirteen of the 14 were cargo vessels, half of them Indian-flagged coasters under 70 m; the only tanker was one outbound Nicaragua-flagged vessel (~224 m).
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, and volume is swinging hard. Windward/Vortexa put Hormuz crude outflow at 4.74M bbl on 08 OCT, down from 11.1M on 07 OCT (7-day average 8.67M bbl, down from 9.76M); ship-to-ship transfers fell from 9.09M to 2.43M bbl while terminal loadings rose from 2.04M to 2.31M. Daily volume has alternated between ~4.7M and ~11M bbl for four straight days. Reuters/Kpler (08 OCT) put late-September oil transit near 10M bpd, about 74% of pre-conflict, with only ~60% of non-Iranian Gulf crude exports physically crossing Hormuz.
  • Count Dispute: Reuters/Kpler reported (08 OCT) that only 7 commercial vessels passed on 06 OCT, the lowest since 23 JUL, and warned that AIS-dark transits mean tracked counts understate traffic; Windward logged 11 for the same day. USNI News (09 OCT) cites 143 total transits for 28 SEP–07 OCT, about 14 a day — in line with Windward’s recent run rate. JMIC said (reported 02 OCT) independent tracking shows single-digit daily transits each way while US NCAGS put traffic near ~30 a day. IMF PortWatch-based counts (4 on 04 OCT, per straits.live) are AIS-only and structurally low — not used for the hero figure.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s incident log stands at 93 (85 attacks, 8 near-misses) in its 11 OCT edition, up from 86. A ~330 m Panama-flagged crude tanker carrying ~2.07M bbl of Saudi crude was struck 13 nm west of Al Jazeera, UAE on 09 OCT (UKMTO); the fire was put out, and Windward data shows it had been stationary there for at least two weeks. Earlier hits: an unidentified tanker east of Fujairah (08 OCT, fire), another ~51 nm off Qatar (07 OCT), and ON PEACE (06 OCT, southern corridor, dark; 12 Indian seafarers injured). IMO counted nine ships struck 01–06 OCT; Lloyd’s List counted 12 attacks 28 SEP–07 OCT, the highest weekly total of the war. Iranian state media (10 OCT) claimed a supertanker hit a naval mine on an unauthorized route — not confirmed by major wires. MIOC: laden tankers deeper in the Gulf will likely be targeted more often.
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 30.0x peacetime on 10 OCT (straits.live, 2002Z). straits.live counted 130–149 AIS-visible vessels holding position away from berth on 10 OCT. Windward counted 1,035 vessels in the Gulf on 10 OCT (916 on 07 OCT), 152 of them rated high smuggling risk. VLCC rates for Hormuz voyages topped $1M per day (Seatrade, 02 OCT). Iran’s PGSA blacklist stood at 84 vessels in Windward’s last stated total (06 OCT); only one AIS-on blacklisted crossing has been logged so far in the 07–14 OCT week.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: Windward’s MIOC assesses (04 OCT) that with no exports of its own left to protect, Iran is raising the cost of rival flows — strikes on Kuwait- and UAE-affiliated tankers are likely to continue. Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September (Vortexa data). On 08 OCT the US sanctioned 22 more tankers and dozens of individuals and companies tied to Iran’s oil trade (gCaptain). Blacklisted vessels are going dark at the Fujairah and Sohar anchorages rather than crossing: 10 did so, seven of them there (Windward, 11 OCT).
  • Talks: No deal and no formal talks reported. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said on 04 OCT that the Strait will not reopen until the US meets Iran’s seven conditions. Vice President Vance told Reuters (06 OCT) that Iran must make a meaningful cut to its enrichment capacity, and on 07 OCT an Iranian official said US proposals were at odds with Iran’s demands (CBS). Unconfirmed reports on 08 OCT that Iran said the Strait could reopen within a week have not been verified, and no reopening has followed.
  • Iranian Posture: The IRGC Navy reiterated on 09 OCT that ships using routes Iran has not approved will be pursued across the region, after Iran warned (08 OCT) it will close routes it deems unauthorized, including the southern corridor along Oman’s coast. US CENTCOM says it has cleared mines from the primary transit lanes and that they are open to vessels not violating the US blockade of Iran, and said (10 OCT) that 133 vessels have been redirected under the blockade. Windward shows the blockade active at 180 days.
  • Wildcard: Red Sea: a tanker reported multiple explosions close aboard ~60 nm south of Al Mukha, Yemen on 04 OCT (no damage, crew safe); Windward MIOC assessed a Houthi attack most likely. Bab-el-Mandeb crossings were 21 inbound and 17 outbound on 10 OCT; Suez 25 and 18. Gulf GPS jamming hit 186 vessels on 10 OCT (of 7,943 transmitting), 53.9% above the 7-day average, producing 443 false ship-to-ship meetings; 86,416 unique vessels have been jammed in the Gulf since 28 FEB.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date. Tehran ties reopening to its seven conditions (04 OCT). The Atlantic reported (07 OCT) that the White House has asked the Pentagon for options for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly before the 03 NOV midterms. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said (reported 05 OCT) market pressure will worsen until the Strait reopens and refilling global stockpiles could take two years. QatarEnergy’s LNG force majeure runs into November for some buyers (Windward, 02 OCT) — Qatar supplies about a fifth of global LNG heading into winter.
  • Oil Markets: Brent settled at $104.72 on Friday 09 OCT (+0.42%; straits.live), and futures have been closed since, so the 10 OCT mine claim is not yet priced. It had jumped 4.15% to $104.64 on 08 OCT after The Atlantic’s report on Pentagon strike options. WTI was $91.18 on 08 OCT (straits.live brief). The IEA said 03 OCT that members have released 325M bbl of the 400M bbl pledged in March.
  • Bypass and Outlook: ADCOP to Fujairah runs at ~100% of its 1.5M bpd capacity and Goreh-Jask at ~40% (straits.live, 05 OCT). Saudi Arabia said its East-West pipeline to Yanbu is running at full capacity (Trading Economics, 08 OCT), though straits.live still showed Petroline at 0% on 05 OCT. Kpler says ~40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, versus 17% pre-war — bypass routes help, but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.