Skip to main content

The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
Full Intel

Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 25 Oct 2026 (Day 239)

Published 25 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 25 October 2026? No. On Day 239 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 13 ships transited on 22 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 22 Oct 2026? 13 vessel transits were logged on 22 Oct 2026 (7 inbound, 6 outbound), about 15% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $116.72 on 25 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Still effectively closed to normal traffic, Day 239 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 13 transits logged on 22 Oct (the most recent complete day reported) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 13 transits on 22 OCT (data as of 22 OCT, the most recent complete day reported; no 23 or 24 OCT count published yet) — 7 inbound (6 AIS-visible, 1 dark) and 6 outbound, about 15% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Day 239 of the closure that began 28 FEB.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Vortexa via Windward put crude outflow at 10.57M bbl on 20 OCT (7.31M on 19 OCT; 9.94M 7-day average), about 62% of the ~17.1M pre-war, all traced to the UAE (8.48M terminal loading, 2.09M ship-to-ship). Refined product outflow was 15.0M bbl over 06–20 OCT.
  • Count Dispute: Windward’s headline lists 14 transits on 21 OCT (9 in, 5 out) while its panels list 13 on 22 OCT; no second source publishes a 22 OCT count. Treasury Secretary Bessent says Gulf crude exports have recovered to about 17–18M bpd, above pre-war (Fox News, 23 OCT), which conflicts with Vortexa’s 10.57M bbl on 20 OCT and is unreconciled. Treat the transit count and the oil volume as separate measures.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log stands at 106 incidents (98 attacks, 8 near-misses) as of 21 OCT; the latest logged is a Netherlands-flagged tug off Khor Fakkan on 18 OCT. UKMTO reports a tanker hit by an unknown projectile about 7 nm NE of Limah, Oman on 22 OCT; it continued its voyage (via Fox News, 23 OCT). Lloyd’s List counts 28 attacks in October, the most since the war began (AP, 22 OCT). 3 inbound cargo vessels on 21 OCT were rated high smuggling risk (Windward).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (7 OCT; not refreshed since), with about 100 vessels at anchor away from port, many off Dubai (straits.live, 24 OCT 0557Z). Spot tanker charter rates for the shuttle have soared into the hundreds of thousands of dollars a day (AP, 22 OCT).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, remains in full effect (CENTCOM, 15 OCT; White House, 20 OCT; not refreshed). Iran keeps its own shipping route in its territorial waters (IMO, via Fox News, 21 OCT). Gulf GPS jamming hit 293 of 7,437 transmitting vessels on 21 OCT, 2.5% below the 7-day average (Windward). The US is sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands more troops to the region (AP, 22 OCT).
  • Talks: Indirect talks continue through mediators; no deal reported through 23 OCT. Iranian FM Araghchi said on 21 OCT the negotiating table remains in place (CBS News). IAEA chief Grossi said the agency is ready to monitor if the US and Iran reach a deal, and Putin is preparing to host Iranian President Pezeshkian next week (Fox News, 23 OCT). Gen. Rezaei says the strait stays closed until Iran’s conditions are met (Pars Today via straits.live, 23 OCT).
  • Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation. The IRGC said on 22 OCT that seven tankers were hit by attacks or naval mines overnight (AP) and claimed strikes on four US-linked tankers in the Persian Gulf (Fox News, 23 OCT); both claims are unverified. CENTCOM called the mine claims incorrect and said US forces cleared the lanes. On 24 OCT the IRGC claimed two more supertankers (4.5M+ bbl) hit mines on the unauthorised southern route and said US warships will never be allowed into the Gulf; no maritime authority had confirmed it (HNGN; Gulf News, 24 OCT). Trump said on 22 OCT that Iran is faking ship strikes to lift oil prices before the midterms (CBS News).
  • Wildcard: Saudi Front: Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters as fighting with the Houthis intensified (Fox News, 23 OCT). A Houthi attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one person and injured eight on 21 OCT, and the State Department ordered non-emergency US staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia (Fox News, 21–22 OCT). Netanyahu called for the Iranian regime to be overthrown (Fox News, 23 OCT). Windward’s 21 OCT Red Sea counts: Bab-el-Mandeb 34 crossings, Suez 43.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; not refreshed). At a Florida rally Trump said “We may do another little epic fury, or they’ll agree” (Fox News, 23 OCT). US ambassador Tom Barrack said on 24 OCT that Washington could strike Iran as soon as this weekend (Gulf News). Reuters sources cite 03 NOV, the US midterms, as the point after which a breakthrough looks unlikely (The National, 20 OCT). Kpler projects Iranian crude revenue could fall to zero by mid-December (Fox News, 23 OCT).
  • Oil Markets: Brent settled at $116.72 on 23 OCT, a five-month high, with WTI at $103.27 (Fox News); straits.live shows $116.72 (25 OCT 0641Z, market closed) and reports of the 23 OCT gain range from about 1% to 3.3%. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.29 on 25 OCT, down 1¢ from $4.30 a week earlier; our estimate puts about 106¢ of the pump price on the oil jump since the war.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Straits.live (20 OCT report; no per-pipeline date given; not refreshed) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 38% of its 7.0M bpd capacity, ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd, and Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) with no utilization reported. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.