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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 15 Nov 2026 (Day 260)

Published 15 Nov 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 15 November 2026? No. On Day 260 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 9 ships transited on 13 Nov 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 13 Nov 2026? 9 vessel transits were logged on 13 Nov 2026 (5 inbound, 4 outbound), about 10% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $95.84 on 15 November 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 260 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 9 transits logged on 13 Nov 2026 (the most recent complete day reported) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 9 transits on 13 NOV, the most recent complete day reported (no 14 NOV figure had been published at this 15 NOV update): 4 outbound and 5 inbound, about 10% of the ~88 a day before the crisis.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow. Kpler puts Hormuz crude traffic at an average 10.5M bpd since 01 OCT, against about 13.5M bpd pre-war (Reuters, 11 NOV). No fresher volume figure has been published.
  • Dark Traffic: All 9 crossings on 13 NOV ran dark, 2 of them seen only by satellite. Gulf dark-activity events rose 13% to 256 on 13 NOV, with 836 cargo vessels and tankers in the Gulf (Windward). straits.live (AIS-only) still shows 3 transits on 08 NOV.
  • Fleet Activity: Iran’s navy and the IRGC say three tankers caught fire after hitting mines late 13 NOV and on 14 NOV, two on an “unauthorised” route in the south of the Strait and one east of it; none verified. The US military says the main routes are cleared of mines (AFP, 15 NOV).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (07 OCT; 39 days old, not refreshed). The UN says 25 seafarers have been killed in and around Hormuz since February (Al Jazeera, 14 NOV).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • Iran’s Terms: The IRGC warns ships crossing without its traffic-control centre will “face the same fate” (Reuters via JPost, 14 NOV). Bahrain intercepted several Iranian aerial attacks on 15 NOV; the IRGC claims a drone strike on a US radar at Al Rifaa base, unconfirmed (The National, 15 NOV).
  • Talks: On 12 NOV Trump posted “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed.” (Truth Social via The National, 12 NOV). Qatar is still mediating toward an interim deal and Iran’s two-day reopening proposal stays on the table; Washington has not accepted Iran’s conditions (straits.live, 14 NOV).
  • Escorted Transits: US forces continue escorting tankers on the southern route (CBS, 12 NOV). Windward splits 13 NOV traffic as 3 South, 1 North and 5 on unknown corridors.
  • Wildcard: Shenzhen Summit: Trump is due to discuss Iran at a trilateral meeting with Xi and Putin in Shenzhen on Thursday 19 NOV (US official via Times of Israel, 14 NOV).

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date. Qatar’s LNG traffic is running about 30% of pre-war, while UAE LNG is back to pre-war levels (S&P Global via Reuters, 11 NOV). Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 NOV).
  • Oil Markets: Brent last settled at $95.84 on Friday 13 NOV, up 0.02% on the session; markets are shut for the weekend (straits.live). AAA US gas: $3.82 on 15 NOV, down 20¢ in a week and 51¢ in a month; we estimate ≈57¢ of it is the war premium.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Kpler puts total Gulf crude exports, bypass routes included, at 16.7M bpd since 01 OCT vs ~17M pre-war (Reuters, 11 NOV). Saudi output has risen to near pre-war levels (The National, 12 NOV).

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.