Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 1 Nov 2026 (Day 246)

Published 1 Nov 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Status: Effectively closed to commercial transit, Day 246 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 13 transits logged on 29 Oct (the most recent complete day reported) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for 1 November 2026. For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

• Status: Windward logged 13 transits on 29 OCT (data as of 29 OCT, the most recent complete day reported; the 30 OCT count is not yet published, so this figure is 3 days old) — 5 inbound and 8 outbound (9 AIS-visible, 4 dark), about 15% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Corridor split: 9 north, 3 south, 1 unknown. Day 246 of the closure that began 28 FEB.
• Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Kpler put Hormuz crude exports at about 11.1M bpd for October, 2% below September, but only 7.3M bpd in the week ended 28 OCT, more than 40% below the pre-war level of about 16M bpd (Kpler, via Discovery Alert citing CNBC, 31 OCT).
• Count Dispute: Windward’s 29 OCT panels list 13 transits (5 in, 8 out), 4 of them dark (a floor); its 28 OCT count was 5 and its 27 OCT count was 12. Windward also reports 260 of 1,014 vessels in the Gulf went dark on 29 OCT, against 251 the day before. IMF PortWatch (AIS-only, via straits.live) still lists just 2 commercial transits on 25 OCT against a baseline of about 85. No second source publishes a 29 OCT count, so Windward is used.
• Fleet Activity: UKMTO said on 30 OCT that the tanker hit on the night of 29 OCT was struck by explosives attached to its hull by a small boat, not a projectile; Windward places it 25 nm NE of Khasab (engine-room fire out, crew safe). The IRGC said on 30 OCT that four tankers hit naval mines on unauthorised routes, the fourth a supertanker carrying over 2M barrels (AP via Fox News; Iranian claim, unconfirmed). UKMTO data show October had the most Hormuz-region incidents of any month of the war. Gulf GPS jamming on 29 OCT: 174 vessels, down 48% against the 7-day average (Windward). Qatar Gas Transport said on 1 NOV that its LNG carrier Al Mayeda was struck by unidentified objects in the Gulf on the evening of 30 OCT; crew safe, vessel operational (Al Jazeera, 1 NOV).
• Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (7 OCT; 25 days old, not refreshed). Its 1 NOV report shows about 99 vessels holding offshore, many off Dubai, and 51 AIS-dark tankers of 144 screened in 24h (a floor), and 5 of 9 container carriers saying they have stopped using the Strait.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

• New Framework: The US blockade of Iranian ports, which Windward counts as 200 days old on 31 OCT, was still in force at the last report (28 OCT). Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority added 2 vessels to its public non-compliance list on 28 OCT, bringing the total to 124 (Windward). No new framework has been announced since.
• Talks: Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on 30 OCT, and Pakistan’s army chief made his second trip there this month; Pakistan’s military said it is cautiously optimistic (Reuters via The National, Fox News, 30 OCT). Iranian state media said on 28 OCT that Iran would reopen the Strait within 4–5 days if the US lifts its naval blockade (via straits.live). No deal and no ceasefire as of 1 NOV.
• Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation; the IRGC said on 30 OCT its mine strikes hit ships on unauthorised routes (AP via Fox News). Iranian factions are split, with President Pezeshkian urging talks and hardliners favouring deterrence (Iran International via Fox News, 30 OCT). Foreign Minister Araghchi said on 21 OCT the Strait will not be open to everyone until an agreement is reached.
• Wildcard: US Strike Window: Trump said on 31 OCT that the US is “not in that much of a hurry” for a deal because Iran’s navy is knocked out, and that “one or two sites” remain to deal with (ABC News, 31 OCT). He had earlier said the US would not strike before the 03 NOV midterms, and the Wall Street Journal reported on 28 OCT that the US warned Gulf allies to prepare for a possibly brief but intense campaign afterwards (via Fox News).

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

• Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; 19 days old, not refreshed). 03 NOV, the US midterms, is the next political marker. October was the worst month for Hormuz-region incidents since the war began (UKMTO via Fox News, 30 OCT).
• Oil Markets: Brent (ICE January futures) settled at $113.43 on 30 OCT, up 2.37%; the expiring December contract settled at $117.64, up 2.4% (The National, 30 OCT). Brent rose about 15% in October, its fourth straight monthly gain. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.18 on 31 OCT, down 11¢ from $4.30 a week earlier and $4.43 a month earlier; our estimate puts about 99¢ of the pump price on the oil jump since the war (Brent minus ~$72 pre-war).
• Bypass and Outlook: straits.live’s 31 OCT report shows Petroline to Yanbu at 83% of its 7.0M bpd capacity (Saudi energy minister’s rate, 6 OCT) and ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd (Argus, 15 MAY); Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) reports no utilization. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war flow of about 20M bpd.

Keep reading

• Live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker
• When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
• Strait of Hormuz and gas prices
• War-risk insurance
• Daily SITREP archive
• Yesterday: SITREP 31 Oct 2026

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.