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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 30 Oct 2026 (Day 244)

Published 30 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 30 October 2026? No. On Day 244 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 5 ships transited on 28 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 28 Oct 2026? 5 vessel transits were logged on 28 Oct 2026 (0 inbound, 5 outbound), about 6% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $117.00 on 30 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 244 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 5 transits logged on 28 Oct (the most recent complete day reported) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 5 transits on 28 OCT (data as of 28 OCT, the most recent complete day reported; the 29 OCT count is not yet published, so this figure is 2 days old) — 0 inbound and 5 outbound (2 AIS-visible, 3 dark), about 6% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Corridor split: 2 north, 3 south. Day 244 of the closure that began 28 FEB.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. The latest Windward read puts October crude loadings west of Hormuz (excluding Iran) at about 11M bpd, against 14.5M bpd before the war and 1.56M bpd in May (as of 27 OCT; 3 days old, not refreshed — Windward’s 28 OCT page carries no crude-volume figure).
  • Count Dispute: Windward’s 28 OCT panels list 5 transits, all outbound, 3 of them dark (a floor); its 27 OCT count was 12 (7 in, 5 out). Windward also reports 251 of 1,013 vessels in the Gulf went dark on 28 OCT, against 243 the day before. IMF PortWatch (AIS-only, via straits.live) still lists just 2 commercial transits on 25 OCT against a baseline of about 85. No second source publishes a 28 OCT count, so Windward is used.
  • Fleet Activity: UKMTO said on 29 OCT that a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while completing its outbound transit of the Strait; no injuries or pollution were reported, and no ship name, position or CENTCOM confirmation was published (Iran International, 29 OCT). The IRGC claims three tankers hit naval mines over the previous 24 hours (unconfirmed). Windward’s incident log (106 incidents) shows nothing newer than the 18 OCT tug attack off Khor Fakkan. Gulf GPS jamming on 28 OCT: 209 vessels, down 46% against the 7-day average (Windward).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (7 OCT; 23 days old, not refreshed). Its 30 OCT report shows about 50 vessels holding offshore, 40 AIS-dark tankers of 99 screened (a floor), and 5 of 9 container carriers saying they have stopped using the Strait.
  • New Framework: The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, was still in force at the last report (28 OCT). US Naval Forces Central Command told vessels on 28 OCT to stay well clear of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman unless they must transit, and to expect delays from blockade enforcement (Bloomberg, 28 OCT). No new framework has been announced since.
  • Talks: Qatar and Pakistan are mediating; no direct US–Iran talks were reported as of 27 OCT (Fox News, 28 OCT). Iranian state media said on 28 OCT that Iran would reopen the Strait within 4–5 days if the US lifts its naval blockade (via straits.live). No deal and no ceasefire as of 30 OCT.
  • Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation. The Iranian Navy said on 27 OCT the Strait remains unsafe and closed to offending vessels, while CENTCOM called an IRGC claim that US forces had left the Strait false (Fox News, 28 OCT). Foreign Minister Araghchi said on 21 OCT the Strait will not be open to everyone until an agreement is reached.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Wildcard: Saudi Front: Saudi air defenses intercepted a Houthi missile (Gulf News, 29 OCT), following the 27 OCT interception near Taif. The Wall Street Journal reported on 28 OCT that the US warned Gulf Arab allies to prepare for a possibly brief but intense campaign against Iran after the 03 NOV US midterms (via Fox News).
  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; 18 days old, not refreshed). At a Texas rally on 27 OCT, Trump said the conflict is going to end very soon and claimed more oil is flowing out of Hormuz (Fox News, 28 OCT). 03 NOV, the US midterms, is the next political marker.
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded near $117.00 on 30 OCT (0955Z, intraday), up 2.00% over 24h (straits.live), after about $114.38 on 29 OCT (1000Z) and a $116.72 settle on 23 OCT. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.23 on 29 OCT, down 4¢ from $4.27 a week earlier and $4.46 a month earlier; our estimate puts about 107¢ of the pump price on the oil jump since the war (Brent minus ~$72 pre-war).
  • Bypass and Outlook: straits.live’s 30 OCT report (no per-pipeline date given) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 83% of its 7.0M bpd capacity and ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd; Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) reports no utilization. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war flow of about 20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.