Skip to main content

The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
Full Intel

Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 29 Oct 2026 (Day 243)

Published 29 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 29 October 2026? No. On Day 243 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 12 ships transited on 27 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 27 Oct 2026? 12 vessel transits were logged on 27 Oct 2026 (7 inbound, 5 outbound), about 14% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $114.38 on 29 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Closed in practice, Day 243 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 12 transits logged on 27 Oct 2026 against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 12 transits on 27 OCT (data as of 27 OCT, the most recent complete day reported; the 28 OCT count is not yet published, so this figure is 2 days old) — 7 inbound (6 AIS-visible, 1 dark) and 5 outbound (4 AIS-visible, 1 dark), about 14% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Corridor split: 8 north, 4 south. Day 243 of the closure that began 28 FEB.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Windward puts October crude loadings west of Hormuz (excluding Iran) at about 11M bpd, against 14.5M bpd before the war and 1.56M bpd in May (Windward, as of 27 OCT). Gulf national oil companies and partners control about 230 tankers; roughly 70% went dark in the past three months, averaging 12 days each, and most exit via the southern corridor.
  • Count Dispute: Windward’s 27 OCT panels list 12 transits, 2 of them dark (a floor). IMF PortWatch (AIS-only, via straits.live) showed just 2 a day on 25 OCT against a baseline of about 85, and no second source publishes a 27 OCT count. Bessent’s 23 OCT claim that Gulf crude exports recovered to about 17–18M bpd (Fox News) and Trump’s 22 OCT claim that Hormuz oil flow tops pre-war levels (LBC) remain unreconciled with Windward’s ~11M bpd. Treat the transit count and the oil volume as separate measures.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log lists 106 incidents (98 attacks, 8 near-misses); the latest logged is a Netherlands-flagged tug off Khor Fakkan on 18 OCT. Bloomberg, citing the 28 OCT US advisory context, says Iranian attacks on ships hit a wartime high of nearly 30 in October. UKMTO reported a tanker hit about 7 nm NE of Limah, Oman on 22 OCT (via Fox News). Iranian state media claimed on 28 OCT that a tanker caught fire after hitting mines in the eastern Strait; no maritime authority has confirmed it. Gulf GPS jamming hit 326 of 6,888 transmitting vessels on 27 OCT, 12.0% below the 7-day average (Windward).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (7 OCT; 22 days old, not refreshed). straits.live counts 157 AIS-visible vessels holding position as of 28 OCT 0322Z, excluding ships within 25 km of a working port; its 29 OCT report shows 47 AIS-dark tankers of 185 screened (a floor, not a stranded count). Windward estimates about 15% of the Gulf dark fleet changed registered owner in the past three months.
  • New Framework: The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, remains in force. US Naval Forces Central Command told vessels on 28 OCT to stay well clear of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman unless they must transit, and to expect delays from blockade enforcement; neutral ships may be questioned, boarded and searched (Bloomberg, 28 OCT). Iranian crude exports are near zero (Bloomberg, 28 OCT). The US is sending a third carrier group (CNBC, 22 OCT).
  • Talks: Indirect talks continue; no deal and no ceasefire as of 28 OCT. Iranian state media said on 28 OCT that Iran would reopen the Strait within 4–5 days if the US lifts its naval blockade (via straits.live). Its seven-day plan reopens Hormuz on day six and starts negotiations on day seven; on 26 OCT Iran added a $24 billion frozen-reserves precondition before the clock starts (Iran International, via House of Saud). Qatari mediators said on 28 OCT they presented Tehran with a new draft deal, and Iran rejected some ideas as unacceptable (CBS News, 28 OCT).
  • Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation. Foreign Minister Araghchi said on 21 OCT that the Strait will not be open to everyone until an agreement or understanding is reached. An army spokesman said on 16 OCT it would reopen if the US leaves the region. Iran claims it downed a 14th US MQ-1 drone near Hormuz (House of Saud, 29 OCT; unverified). The IRGC claimed on 24 OCT that two supertankers hit mines on the unauthorised southern route; no maritime authority confirmed it.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Wildcard: Saudi Front: Saudi air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward Taif by Iran-backed Houthi forces on the night of 27 OCT (Saudi-led coalition, via Fox News, 28 OCT). The Wall Street Journal reported on 28 OCT that the US warned Gulf Arab allies to prepare for a possibly brief but intense campaign against Iran after the midterms (via Fox News). Windward’s 27 OCT Red Sea counts: Bab-el-Mandeb 37 crossings (19 in, 18 out), Suez 53 (28 in, 25 out).
  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; 17 days old, not refreshed). Asked on 27 OCT about strikes after the midterms, Trump said anything is possible (Fox News, 28 OCT). Reuters sources cite 03 NOV, the US midterms, as the point after which a breakthrough looks unlikely (The National, 20 OCT). Reuters reports US Iran-war spending above $47 billion (via Fox News, 28 OCT).
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded near $114.38 on 29 OCT (1000Z, intraday), down 0.32% over 24h (straits.live), after $115.35 at 28 OCT 0259Z and a $116.72 settle on 23 OCT, a five-month high. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.25 on 28 OCT, down 2¢ from $4.26 a week earlier and $4.48 a month earlier; our estimate puts about 101¢ of the pump price on the oil jump since the war.
  • Bypass and Outlook: straits.live’s 29 OCT report (no per-pipeline date given) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 83% of its 7.0M bpd capacity, up from 38% in the 20 OCT report; ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd; and Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) with no utilization reported. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.