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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 27 Oct 2026 (Day 241)

Published 27 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 27 October 2026? No. On Day 241 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 13 ships transited on 22 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 22 Oct 2026? 13 vessel transits were logged on 22 Oct 2026 (7 inbound, 6 outbound), about 15% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $116.28 on 27 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 241 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 13 transits logged on 22 Oct (the most recent complete day reported; no newer count published) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 13 transits on 22 OCT (data as of 22 OCT, the most recent complete day reported; no newer count has been published since 23 OCT, so this figure is 5 days old) — 7 inbound (6 AIS-visible, 1 dark) and 6 outbound, about 15% of the ~88 a day before the crisis. Day 241 of the closure that began 28 FEB.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Vortexa via Windward put crude outflow at 10.57M bbl on 20 OCT (7.31M on 19 OCT; 9.94M 7-day average; not refreshed since 23 OCT), about 62% of the ~17.1M pre-war, all traced to the UAE (8.48M terminal loading, 2.09M ship-to-ship). Refined product outflow was 15.0M bbl over 06–20 OCT.
  • Count Dispute: Windward’s headline lists 14 transits on 21 OCT (9 in, 5 out) while its panels list 13 on 22 OCT; IMF PortWatch (AIS-only, via straits.live) shows just 4 on 18 OCT against a baseline of 85 a day, and no second source publishes a 22 OCT count. Treasury Secretary Bessent says Gulf crude exports have recovered to about 17–18M bpd, above pre-war (Fox News, 23 OCT), which conflicts with Vortexa’s 10.57M bbl on 20 OCT and is unreconciled. Treat the transit count and the oil volume as separate measures.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log stands at 106 incidents (98 attacks, 8 near-misses) as of 21 OCT; the latest logged is a Netherlands-flagged tug off Khor Fakkan on 18 OCT. UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile about 7 nm NE of Limah, Oman on 22 OCT; it continued its voyage (via Fox News, 23 OCT). On 25 OCT Iran reportedly fired an anti-ship cruise missile at a vessel from Sirik Island and an unidentified missile then hit the launcher; no CENTCOM, US Navy or UKMTO confirmation (House of Saud, 26 OCT). Lloyd’s List counts 28 attacks in October, the most since the war began (AP, 22 OCT). UKMTO reported a vessel on fire about 63 nm from Al-Faw, Iraq on 26 OCT, calling it “suspicious activity”; cause unconfirmed (CBS News, 26 OCT).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s latest figure (7 OCT; not refreshed since). straits.live counts 132 AIS-visible vessels holding in the Hormuz and Gulf watch box (24 OCT 2122Z); JMIC counted about 492 vessels waiting outside the strait (25 OCT, via global-energy-flow.com). Spot tanker charter rates for the shuttle have soared into the hundreds of thousands of dollars a day (AP, 22 OCT).

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, remains in full effect (CENTCOM, 15 OCT; White House, 20 OCT; not refreshed). Iran keeps its own shipping route in its territorial waters (IMO, via Fox News, 21 OCT). Gulf GPS jamming hit 293 of 7,437 transmitting vessels on 21 OCT, 2.5% below the 7-day average (Windward). The US is sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands more troops to the region (AP, 22 OCT).
  • Talks: Indirect talks continue through mediators; no deal reported through 27 OCT. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iranian leaders in Tehran on 26 OCT; Iran called the talks “very good” but no concrete outcome was announced (CBS News, 26 OCT). Qatari mediators visited Tehran on 25 OCT. Iran’s envoy to Pakistan said on 24 OCT that Tehran would reopen the Strait if Washington lifts its naval blockade, an IRGC-affiliated outlet rejected that, and Mehr News denies any proposal was conveyed (Iran International, 24 OCT; straits.live, 25 OCT). Foreign Minister Araghchi said on 26 OCT that Hormuz management will not return to pre-war norms (Gulf News). Gen. Rezaei says the strait stays closed until Iran’s conditions are met (Pars Today via straits.live, 23 OCT).
  • Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation. On 24 OCT the IRGC claimed two supertankers (4.5M+ bbl) hit mines on the unauthorised southern route and said US warships will never be allowed into the Gulf; no maritime authority had confirmed it (Gulf News, 24 OCT). Earlier IRGC claims of seven tankers hit overnight on 22 OCT (AP) and four US-linked tankers struck (Fox News, 23 OCT) are also unverified; CENTCOM called the mine claims incorrect and said US forces cleared the lanes. Trump said on 22 OCT that Iran is faking ship strikes to lift oil prices before the midterms (CBS News).
  • Wildcard: Saudi Front: Explosions rattled Riyadh on 25 OCT, and on 26 OCT Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile fired toward the city, and on 27 OCT it said it intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at its Eastern Province (CBS News); the Houthis say they targeted the airport (Gulf News, 26 OCT). King Khalid airport reopened Terminals 1 and 2 on 25 OCT after a two-week closure, but most departures remained cancelled. Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters (Fox News, 23 OCT). Windward’s 21 OCT Red Sea counts: Bab-el-Mandeb 34 crossings, Suez 43.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; not refreshed). Trump floated strikes as soon as 25 OCT (Iran International, 24 OCT), then said late on 25 OCT that there would be no US strike for now but that new military action remains possible (Gulf News, 26 OCT). In a Fox News interview on 25 OCT he said he is weighing a deal against finishing Iran off (CBS News, 26 OCT). Israel’s election voting began on 27 OCT. Reuters sources cite 03 NOV, the US midterms, as the point after which a breakthrough looks unlikely (The National, 20 OCT). Kpler projects Iranian crude revenue could fall to zero by mid-December (Fox News, 23 OCT).
  • Oil Markets: Brent traded near $116.28 on 27 OCT (0757Z, intraday), up 0.41% from the prior settle and just below the $116.72 settle on 23 OCT, a five-month high (straits.live); WTI was near $101.1 on 26 OCT (Gulf News, indicative). AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.29 on 26 OCT, down 1¢ from $4.30 a week earlier; our estimate puts about 105¢ of the pump price on the oil jump since the war.
  • Bypass and Outlook: Straits.live (20 OCT report; no per-pipeline date given; not refreshed) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 38% of its 7.0M bpd capacity, ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd, and Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) with no utilization reported. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.