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The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz
Daily SITREP by MOCEAN
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Strait of Hormuz SITREP: 22 Oct 2026 (Day 236)

Published 22 Oct 2026 · The Strait of Hormuz daily situation report

Quick answer

  • Is the Strait of Hormuz open on 22 October 2026? No. On Day 236 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. 10 ships transited on 20 Oct 2026 (Windward, last complete day) versus a pre-crisis norm of about 88 per day.
  • How many ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on 20 Oct 2026? 10 vessel transits were logged on 20 Oct 2026 (4 inbound, 6 outbound), about 11% of the ~88/day pre-crisis average.
  • What is the Brent crude price during the Hormuz closure? Brent crude was $110.90 on 22 October 2026, versus about $72 a barrel before the war.

Status: Effectively closed, Day 236 of the closure that began 28 Feb 2026. 10 transits logged on 20 Oct 2026 (the latest complete day reported) against a pre-crisis norm of ~88 per day.

This is the archived daily situation report for . For today’s count, see the live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker.

Core Transit & Vessel Status

  • Status: Windward logged 10 transits on 20 OCT (the most recent complete day reported; data as of 20 OCT, published 21 OCT; the 21 OCT count is not out yet, so this figure is one day behind) — 4 inbound (2 northbound, 2 southbound) and 6 outbound (5 northbound, 1 southbound), 7 via the northern corridor and 3 via the southern. That is roughly 11% of the ~88/day pre-crisis norm, down from 15 on 19 OCT and 12 on 18 OCT. 2 of the 10 were dark (1 inbound, 1 outbound), against 0 of 15 on 19 OCT.
  • Volume vs Vessels: The hull count understates the flow, but volume is volatile. Windward’s 21 OCT report carried no new Vortexa crude outflow figure, so the latest stands at 8.72M bbl on 18 OCT against a 7-day average of 9.81M bbl a day to 18 OCT (not refreshed; four days old). Kpler data cited by Gulf News (19 OCT) put Gulf crude flows at about 8.5M bpd last week, roughly half the 17.1M bpd pre-war baseline. Fujairah loaded 15 crude cargoes, about 22.27M bbl (3.18M bpd), on 12–18 OCT, mostly UAE Murban piped in via ADCOP without crossing Hormuz (Vortexa via Windward).
  • Count Dispute: Windward logged 10 vessels on 20 OCT (15 on 19 OCT); no second source publishes a 20 OCT count. Secretary of State Rubio said shipping is at 80 to 100 percent of pre-war levels (Straits Daily Brief, 20 OCT); other indicators do not corroborate that. CENTCOM said on 15 OCT that more than 40 commercial ships transited in the prior 24 hours (Gulf News, 16 OCT; not independently verified). JMIC counted 121 US-facilitated transits for 11–14 OCT. CENTCOM says about 97% of ships transiting have passed safely (Fox News, 18 OCT). The hero figure stays on Windward’s vessel-level count.
  • Fleet Activity: Windward’s threat-zone log stands at 106 incidents (98 attacks, 8 near-misses) as of 20 OCT, with no new incident logged on 19 or 20 OCT. The latest logged is a Netherlands-flagged tug hit by two projectiles off Khor Fakkan in the Gulf of Oman on 18 OCT, one crew member lightly injured. On 16 OCT two tankers were hit NE of Al Jubail, one by an RPG from a small boat. GFS GISELLE (Singapore) was struck on 14 OCT; GFS PRIDE (Singapore) was struck on 13 OCT, caught fire and sank, all 21 crew evacuated. Unverified: the IRGC said on 22 OCT its navy jets hit four vessels using an “illegal route” during oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf, and that three more ships hit mines overnight (TASS, 22 OCT). Iran claimed two tankers hit mines on 17 OCT; the IMO says it cannot guarantee safe passage because mines may remain (Fox News, 21 OCT).
  • Lloyd’s & Insurers: War-risk premiums ran 32.0x peacetime in straits.live’s report of 22 OCT (0502Z), with about 120 vessels holding offshore at anchor, many off Dubai, and 69 AIS-dark tankers (a floor count, same report). The 22 OCT report is up from about 80 vessels at anchor in the 21 OCT report.

The Deal & Diplomatic Status

  • New Framework: The US blockade of Iranian ports, active since 14 JUL, remains in full effect (CENTCOM, 15 OCT; White House, 20 OCT). Iran keeps its own shipping route in its territorial waters (IMO, via Fox News, 21 OCT). A Russia-flagged, EU/UK-sanctioned tanker crossed the US Navy line inbound on 18 OCT and turned back on 19 OCT (Windward). Gulf GPS jamming hit 211 of 7,306 transmitting vessels on 20 OCT, 29.5% below the 7-day average, with 760 false ship-to-ship meetings (Windward). IRGC General Yadollah Javani threatened on 21 OCT to cut the seven undersea cables that run through the strait (Fox News, 21 OCT).
  • Talks: No deal reported through 22 OCT. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir met President Pezeshkian in Tehran on 20 OCT; Iran says the US must lift sanctions and threats before any negotiations, and Qatar says communication between Tehran and Washington has not stopped (The National, 20 OCT). Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait within seven days, under Iranian control, in exchange for lifting the US maritime blockade, easing oil export limits, releasing frozen assets and ending hostilities on all fronts remains on the table; the US has not accepted. President Trump said on 21 OCT: “We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time” (Fox News, 21 OCT). Trump has said the US will not strike Iran before 03 NOV (Reuters, via The National).
  • Iranian Posture: Iran has controlled passage since the war began on 28 FEB and demands ships obtain its authorisation. The IRGC warned on 22 OCT that if what it calls “illegal clearing of waterways” continues, the confrontation could extend to US bases in the region (TASS, 22 OCT). Iran’s security chief has warned that regional undersea cables, data centres and AI sites could be targeted if hostilities resume, and Reuters sources say Tehran is deliberately prolonging talks, expecting little chance of a breakthrough before the US midterms (The National, 20 OCT). Trump claimed on 21 OCT that the US has “decimated” Iran (Fox News).
  • Wildcard: Saudi Front: A Houthi attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one person and injured eight, and a drone intercepted near Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield killed two (Fox News, 21 OCT). Saudi forces intercepted four more drones over the Eastern Province. The State Department ordered non-emergency US government staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia, and oil jumped on the news (Fox News, 21–22 OCT). No fresh Red Sea crossing data was in Windward’s 21 OCT report.

Recovery Outlook & Economic Impact

  • Timeline: No reopening date; Fitch expects a durable deal in early 2027 (straits.live, 12 OCT; not refreshed). Tehran says it will open the Strait within seven days if its conditions are met, but the US has not agreed. Reuters sources cite 03 NOV, the US midterms, as the point after which a breakthrough looks unlikely (The National, 20 OCT).
  • Oil Markets: Brent was $110.90 in straits.live’s report of 22 OCT (0502Z), up 0.56% over 24 hours, after settling at $108.79 on 20 OCT. Early Asian trading on 22 OCT put Brent near $110.11 and WTI near $98.12 after the Saudi evacuation order (Fox News). US regular gasoline averaged $4.26 on 21 OCT, down from $4.33 a week earlier and $4.48 a month earlier (AAA).
  • Bypass and Outlook: Straits.live (20 OCT report; no per-pipeline date given; not refreshed) shows Petroline to Yanbu at 38% of its 7.0M bpd capacity, ADCOP to Fujairah at 100% of its 1.5M bpd, and Goreh-Jask (350K bpd capacity) with no utilization reported. Bypass routes help but cannot replace the Strait’s pre-war ~20M bpd.

Keep reading

How these numbers are counted: methodology · full daily table: data (CSV/JSON, CC-BY 4.0) · corrections.